Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act Weather vs. Climate Page

The difference between weather and climate is constantly mistaken by Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) advocates.  This page references my evaluations of climatic effects that turned out to be weather events and examples of climate hype by other authors.  See another page of mine on climate claims for more information.

Roger Pielke Jr. explains that “When attribution claim are made, more is being conveyed than just scientific details about the causes of a particular disaster – a message is being sent that climate change is important and support for climate policies is the goal”.

Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act Section 1, Legislative findings and declaration states:

1. 1. Climate change is adversely affecting economic well-being, public health, natural resources, and the environment of New York. The adverse impacts of climate change include:
      1. an increase in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events, such as storms, flooding, and heat waves, which can cause direct injury or death, property damage, and ecological damage (e.g., through the release of hazardous substances into the environment);

The standard agenda for CLCPA Climate Action Council meetings includes co-chair remarks and reflections as the first topic.  The latest climate related announcements from the Governor are always included and if there was any extreme weather since the last meeting that event is called out as proof that climate change is happening now.

In both the legislation and the meetings weather and climate are confused.  According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Ocean Service “Weather reflects short-term conditions of the atmosphere while climate is the average daily weather for an extended period of time at a certain location.”  The referenced article goes on to explain “Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.”  Also keep in mind that the standard climatological average is 30 years.  In order to think about a change in today’s climate averages you really should compare the current 30 years against the previous 30 years.  In order to get a trend, you need to look at as much data as possible.  On the face of it that might seem easy but the reality is that the conditions for a representative trend are difficult to achieve.  Ideally you need to use the same instruments, the same methodology, and keep the conditions around the observing location the same.  

The general public has heard the narrative that climate change is affecting weather today so often that it “seems reasonable” that an individual weather event can be plausibly linked to a changing climate.  I disagree for several reasons.  Warming due to the greenhouse effect is only one of many parameters affecting weather.  The magnitude of the warming and the change in atmospheric radiation due to GHG emissions is smaller than the effect of other parameters.  It is also smaller than initial conditions variation used to address chaotic atmospheric conditions. The suggestion that climate change causes unusual weather events ultimately is an unfalsifiable hypothesis because no test can ever show that it is not real because it cannot be detected.

The following references describe evaluations of weather events touted as proof of climate change that upon closer examination proved to be anecdotal observations not supported by climate records.

• Wildfire Smoke in New York This June 8, 2023 post evaluates the possibility that climate change affected the Canadian wildfires that affected New York air quality.

• Great Lakes Vineyard Confronts Climate Change – My 12/3/17 post addressed climatic trends affecting Western NY vineyards
• NYS Climate and Community Protection Act Rationale – I looked at the extreme weather rationale of the proposed New York Climate Act on 4/15/19
• CLUELESS! NY Gov. Cuomo Says There Were No Hurricanes Before Global Warming – On 11/5/19 Paul Homewood eviscerated Cuomo’s comment that “we did not use to have hurricanes, we did not have super storms, we did not have tornadoes” in a MSNBC interview
• Cuomo’s Fake Claims About Extreme Rainfall – Paul Homewood evaluated the claim that extreme rainfall is getting worse in New York on 11/5/19
• Hay Harvest Climate Trend? My 11/25/19 post looked at the claim that climate change affects hay harvesting in Upstate NY

• Climate and Weather Are Not the Same This September 17, 2023 post followed up on another claim about hay harvesting and the effect of climate change in poison ivy

• Rare Snow Storms Today are Blatantly Obvious, Not – My post on 2/3/20 checked out claims that snowstorms have changed in Upstate NY

• Frustrations of a Meteorologist in Today’s Times – My 9/19/20 post addressed Western US wildfires.
• Hurricane Season 2020 – you know the one with the most named storms ever!
  • 2020 Hurricane Season Recap – (12/1/20) Roger Pielke, Jr.
  • How Busy Was the 2020 Hurricane Season? – (12/11/20) Neil Frank, former director of the National Hurricane Center
• Climate Realism called out an article in the Auburn, NY newspaper.  Objective data analysis shows that the claim that farmers are being affected by droughts and heatwaves is contradicted by climatic data.

• Climate Realism called out Oregon Governor Katie Brown about her claims that climate change is driving wildfires in that state.  “Contrary to Brown’s assertions state and federal efforts to address racial disparities, increase electric vehicle usage, and to stop using fossil fuels to generate electricity will do nothing to prevent wildfires. Wildfires are natural. They can’t be stopped, but they can be managed and the damage they cause, to the forest themselves and the people living in and near them, can be dramatically reduced. Wise management of the forests is required. Either through regular, widespread, low intensity burning, as the Native Americans did, or through active forest management, including intensive logging and brush clearing and firefighting efforts, as governments did prior to 1990. These tools, not huge spending on climate change, are the best hope of preventing Oregonians from seeing their homes go up in flames.

• Overview of climate activist climate extreme claims.
• Climate Realism called out claims that Hurricane Ida was enhanced by climate change
• Regarding the  June 2022 floods in Yellowstone, Dr Cliff Mass writes: “The planet has warmed by roughly 1 C during the past century, and let’s assume that humans are the sole cause.   1C increased would increase atmospheric water vapor by 6-7%, perhaps enough to slightly enhance the flooding, but nothing more.  The devastating event would have happened anyway.

• 2022 European heat wave and global warming The bottom line is that the recent European heat wave was caused by an amplification of the northern hemisphere wave pattern, with global warming contributing perhaps 5-10% of the warmth.  Natural variability of the atmosphere was the proximate cause of the warmth and does not represent an existential threat to the population of Europe.

• July Climate Alarmism August 12, 2023

• The Solution to Extreme Weather Issues is not to Reduce GHG Emissions  Reducing New York GHG emissions in a quest to minimize  extreme weather issues in New York is not going to work and will be counter-productive for real solutions.

• The Difference Between Weather and Climate is Important 

Pacific Northwest Heatwave 2021 – Perfect example of an extreme weather event, downslope compressional heating, that is being hyped as having something to do with climate change.  Dr. Cliff Mass explains what was expected, what happened and why in a series of posts: 

Was Global Warming The Cause of the Great Northwest Heatwave? Science Says No This post is the most relevant summary but the others provide weather forecast insights.

The Reason for the Extreme Warmth on Monday–And My Podcast on the Heat Wave is Out

A One-Hundred Year Heat Wave Event Comes Into Focus

Even More Extreme: Extraordinary Record Highs Followed by Perhaps the Most Rapid Cooling in Northwest History

Showtime. Temperatures Are Surging to Unparalleled Highs.

The Big Heat Post Mortem and the Next Few Days

I summarized his responses in World Weather Attribution Pacific Northwest Heatwave Headlines July 30, 2021

Hurricane Ida

• Prediction for the New York Climate Action Council’s Next Meeting September 4, 2021

• Forecast Verification for the New York Climate Action Council Meeting September 17, 2021

• Summary of past precipitation data showing that storm isn’t an example of climate change

• Forecasting and communication has to improve to reduce impacts
• Joe Bastardi explains that there have been many instances of worse hurricane impacts in the Northeast.

Hurricane Ian

Chris Martz did a great job reviewing the claims made about links between climate change and Hurricane Ian were supportable and concluded not so much.   

Media Cluelessness

• • Australia media reported that dry weather conducive to wildfires would be the new normal.  One year later summer is on vacation with cool weather and rain.  It is the weather!

  • The media doesn’t want you to go to the primary sources and learn for yourself what debate is being had.

Dr. Roy Spencer: Near the end of the Trump Administration a series of short, easily understandable brochures that support the general view that there is no climate crisis or climate emergency, and pointing out the widespread misinformation being promoted by alarmists through the media were prepared.  The brochures are no longer available where it originally posted but I made copies for later use.

• • • Introduction (Dr. David Legates)
    • The Sun Climate Connection (Drs. Michael Connolly, Ronan Connolly, Willie Soon)
    • Systematic Problems in the Four National Assessments of Climate Change Impacts on the US (Dr. Patrick Michaels)
    • Record Temperatures in the United States (Dr. John Christy)
    • Radiation Transfer (Dr. William Happer)
    • Is There a Climate Emergency (Dr. Ross McKitrick)
    • Hurricanes and Climate Change (Dr. Ryan Maue)
    • Climate, Climate Change, and the General Circulation (Dr. Anthony Lupo)
    • Can Computer Models Predict Climate (Dr. Christopher Essex)
    • The Faith-Based Nature of Human-Caused Global Warming (Dr. Roy Spencer)

• •  

State of the Science

• CLCPA State of Climate Science Pragmatic Environmentalist May 4, 2021

• The Washington Post has published an enlightening opinion piece on climate alarm and climate realism. Mark Thiessen, its weekly columnist, has based his op-ed on an interview with Steve Koonin and his new book ‘Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters‘ which is making quite a splash due to its matter-of-fact, no-nonsense approach.

World Weather Attribution

The World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative conducts “real-time attribution analysis of extreme weather events as they happen around the world. This provides the public, scientists and decision-makers with the means to make clear connections between greenhouse gas emissions and impactful extreme weather events, such as storms, floods, heatwaves and droughts.”  As noted previously with regards to the Pacific NW heatwave of 2021, Dr. Cliff Mass debunked their attribution analysis.  The following lists other examples of their attribution failures:

• WWA claims severe flooding in Western Europe was made more likely by climate change but Jim Steele explained how a confluence of multiple natural weather patterns was the real cause.  He also explains how the organization operates.

Addressing Extreme Weather

The inability to distinguish between weather and climate also extends to extreme weather solutions. New York City’s plan to combat extreme weather has many positive aspects but fighting climate change impacts is not one of them.

Weather Not Climate Change

Science Demonstrates Media Claims the Washington and British Columbia Floods Were Caused by ‘Climate Change’ Is False