I have been following the Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act)
Climate Act since it was first proposed and most of the articles described are related to it. I have devoted a lot of time to the Climate Act because I believe the ambitions for a zero-emissions economy embodied in the Climate Act outstrip available renewable technology such that the net-zero transition will do more harm than good. . The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect the position of any of my previous employers or any other company I have been associated with, these comments are mine alone.
Climate Act Background
The Climate Act established a New York “Net Zero” target (85% reduction and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050. It includes an interim 2030 reduction target of a 40% reduction by 2030 and a requirement that all electricity generated be “zero-emissions” by 2040. The Climate Action Council is responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlines how to “achieve the State’s bold clean energy and climate agenda.” In brief, that plan is to electrify everything possible and power the electric grid with zero-emissions generating resources. The Integration Analysis prepared by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and its consultants quantifies the impact of the electrification strategies. That material was used to write a Draft Scoping Plan. After a year-long review the Scoping Plan recommendations were finalized at the end of 2022. In 2023 the Scoping Plan recommendations are supposed to be implemented through regulation and legislation.
Videos of Note
For those of you who would rather watch a video than read about a topic I list a few interesting videos. This video describes historic global temperatures and how ancient temperatures are estimated. I think it does a good job describing a complicated subject.
This interview of Judith Curry by John Stossel is a good overview of the climate science hype.
Offshore Wind Costs
Renewable developments are struggling due to soaring interest rates and rising equipment and labor costs. Reuters describes two “procured” projects that have been cancelled:
On Monday, Avangrid (AGR.N), a U.S. subsidiary of Spanish energy firm Iberdrola (IBE.MC), said it filed agreements with power companies in Connecticut to cancel power purchase agreements for Avangrid’s proposed Park City offshore wind project.
“One year ago, Avangrid was the first offshore wind developer in the United States to make public the unprecedented economic headwinds facing the industry,” Avangrid said in a release.
Those headwinds include “record inflation, supply chain disruptions, and sharp interest rate hikes, the aggregate impact of which rendered the Park City Wind project unfinanceable under its existing contracts,” Avangrid said.
Avangrid has said it planned to rebid the Park City project in future offshore wind solicitations.
Also over the past week, utility regulators in Massachusetts approved a proposal by SouthCoast Wind, another offshore wind developer, to pay local power companies a total of around $60 million to terminate contracts to provide about 1,200 MW of power.
Rich Ellenbogen described how the Offshore Wind Market is broken all over the world in an email. First he mentioned this Avangrid project buyout of their contractual obligations. He also pointed out that at a recent UK wind auction, there were no bidders because the maximum selling price for the electricity was not high enough to justify the investment. Their installation costs have risen by about 40% and the UK government did not factor that in to the allowable costs. He explains:
The article states that the wholesale price of electricity in the UK is £80 /Megawatt hour (MWh). With an exchange rate of $1.23 per pound-sterling, that equates to $98.40 per MWh. The article also states that they would need £60 per MWh to make the wind farms profitable, or $73.80 per MWh. However, according to this link, “the wholesale price for electricity in NY State in calendar year 2023 has increased from $24.57/MWh to $42.97/MWh over the last year.”, 47% lower than the wholesale cost in the UK and 72% lower than what the wind installers say that they need to be profitable.
If the Wind installers can get $73.80/MWh installing wind farms in the UK but they can only get $42.97/MWh installing Wind farms here, 42% less, while also having no ships to do the installation because of the Jones Act, where do you think that they will install the wind farms? This is a global market.
The other way to look at this is that the energy from Offshore Wind will cost 72% more than what the ratepayers of NY State are currently paying. This is not a good economic model for the NY State rate payers. 72% increases are well outside of what surveys have said the public will tolerate. Coupled with 15% increase in delivery costs from the utilities, the number of ratepayers, currently 1.2 million ratepayers that are $1.8 billion in arrears, will greatly increase making NY State even less affordable than it already is.
In New York, on October 12, 2023 the Public Service Commission turned down a request to address the same cost issues. Times Union writer Rick Karlin summarizes:
At issue was a request in June by ACE NY, as well as Empire Offshore Wind LLC, Beacon Wind LLC, and Sunrise Wind LLC, which are putting up the offshore wind tower farms.
All told, the request, which was in the form of a filing before the PSC, represented four offshore wind projects totaling 4.2 gigawatts of power, five land-based wind farms worth 7.5 gigawatts and 81 large solar arrays.
All of these projects are underway but not completed. They have already been selected and are under contract with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, or NYSERDA, to help New York transition to a clean power grid, as called for in the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, approved by the state Legislature and signed into law in 2019.
Developer response suggests that “a number of planned projects will now be canceled, and their developers will try to rebid for a higher price at a later date — which will lead to delays in ushering in an era of green energy in New York”. Karlin also quotes Fred Zalcman, director of the New York Offshore Wind Alliance: “Today’s PSC decision denying relief to the portfolio of contracted offshore wind projects puts these projects in serious jeopardy,”
Francis Menton did an overview of the status of offshore wind projects that summarizes all the issues confronting offshore wind development.
Renewable Costs
Francis Menton also did an overview of renewable costs.
Another article in the Telegraph also addresses green energy costs.
Weather and Climate
The September edition of Climate Fact Check debunks ten bogus climate claims from last month. There is a description of the analysis here.
Electric Vehicles
Electric van maker on verge of bankruptcy
EV owners facing soaring insurance costs
Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York 