I have argued repeatedly that New York should pause implementation of the Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) until the State provides a credible demonstration that its proposed electric system will be reliable and affordable. Several recent articles raise additional questions about the assumptions underlying the transition. They address how the grid works, what batteries can and cannot do, how to evaluate solar generation, the consequences of regulations that discourage existing power plants, and the opportunity cost of prioritizing wind and solar over firm generation.
These articles are not all equally detailed, and their numerical claims deserve scrutiny. Nevertheless, they raise a common question that New York has not adequately resolved: are we pursuing the resources needed to provide dependable electricity, or are we pursuing preferred ideological technologies and assuming that someone will figure out how to make the system work?
I have followed the Climate Act since it was first proposed and am convinced its implementation plan will adversely affect affordability and reliability. The opinions expressed in this post do not reflect the position of any of my previous employers or any other organization I have been associated with; these comments are mine alone. I acknowledge the use of Perplexity AI to research the material summarized in this article and prepare an initial draft.
Overview
The articles discussed approach electricity policy from different directions, but their most useful distinction is between producing electricity and providing electric service. A wind turbine, solar panel, battery, and nuclear reactor do not provide interchangeable services simply because each can deliver electricity to the grid. Their availability, operating characteristics, storage requirements, and supporting infrastructure matter. Scott Grout’s grid explainer and the National Center for Energy Analytics (NCEA) battery analysis make that distinction central to their arguments.
That distinction should also be central to Climate Act implementation. The appropriate test is not whether New York can procure enough renewable nameplate capacity or generate enough electricity over an average year. It is whether the complete system can meet demand during the difficult hours, with realistic allowances for equipment outages, unfavorable weather, and the cost of maintaining necessary reserves. It is also necessary to determine how much that will cost.
Electricity Generation Is Not the Same as Electric Service
Scott Grout’s Electricity Generation and the Grid: a Brief Explainer provides a useful starting point because it separates two questions frequently mixed together in energy-policy discussions: what job must a resource perform, and what physical characteristics allow it to perform that job?
Grout identifies three roles. Baseload describes the minimum demand present throughout the day. Load-following generation serves the predictable variation above that minimum. Peaking resources cover the periods of highest demand. These are descriptions of system needs, not competing political preferences. A reliable system must accommodate all three.
He then distinguishes firm generation from variable generation and discusses flexibility—the ability to change output. Wind and solar produce electricity according to available weather conditions. Grid operators can reduce their output but cannot increase production beyond what the wind and sunlight permit. Gas, nuclear, coal, and hydro have different operating constraints, but their production is not governed by the same immediate dependence on wind and sunshine. Hydro availability, of course, remains constrained by water conditions.
The important qualification is that firm does not mean infallible. No generating plant is available every hour, and a high annual capacity factor is not itself a complete measure of reliability. The planning question is how the resource mix performs collectively when demand is high and equipment or fuel supplies are constrained.
For New York, the implication is straightforward. Political renewable generation targets do not describe a complete electric system. Batteries can shift energy, but the State must still identify the resources that will supply prolonged shortfalls and the operating services necessary to maintain the grid.
That is another reason to pause implementation as presently structured. Before requiring additional commitments, New York should publish a resource-by-resource explanation of how its proposed system will perform every necessary job, particularly during the hours when weather-dependent generation contributes little.
Batteries Shift Electricity; They Do Not Manufacture It
Schernikau’s Can Batteries Help Wind and Solar Provide Continuous Electricity Year-Round? central distinction is between generating enough electricity over a year and supplying electricity whenever customers need it. Those are different requirements. An annual energy balance can look satisfactory while concealing individual periods when generation is inadequate.
Batteries help close that gap, but their contribution has limits determined by both their discharge capability and the amount of energy stored. A battery rated in megawatts tells us how much power it can produce. Its megawatt-hour rating tells us how much electric energy it can supply before recharging. Confusing power—the rate at which a battery can deliver electricity—with energy—the total amount it can supply—obscures why a battery capable of meeting an evening peak may lack the stored energy needed to sustain that output through several days of low renewable generation.
The report emphasizes the recharging problem. During an extended period of weak wind and solar production, the available generation may already be needed to serve customers. It cannot simultaneously replenish depleted batteries unless there is sufficient surplus generation or another charging source. Storage also causes losses, so more electricity must enter the storage system than is ultimately delivered from it.
For New York, the relevant issue is not whether batteries work. They do. The issue is whether a specified storage portfolio can support the proposed generation mix through the conditions that determine reliability, and what that complete arrangement will cost.
Before proceeding further, the State should disclose:
- The duration and magnitude of the renewable shortfalls used in its planning.
- The usable stored energy available at the beginning of those events.
- The resources available to recharge storage while meeting ongoing demand.
- The cost of storage replacement, reserve capacity, and supporting infrastructure.
New storage technologies may change these answers. However, prospective improvements should not be treated as equivalent to demonstrated resources with credible deployment schedules.
The rationale for a pause is not that storage can never solve a particular problem. It is that New York should demonstrate the solution, including its charging requirements and total cost, before making irreversible decisions that depend on it.
The Cost of Regulating Dependable Generation Out of Service
The Energy Bad Boys article Destroying the $138.5 Billion Blackout Machine approaches the issue through federal power-plant regulation. The authors report that their modeling found $138.5 billion in net benefits for the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region from removing existing greenhouse-gas regulations and preventing future carbon-pollution standards of the type they evaluated.
That is their modeled result, not an independently established saving that can be transferred to New York. The article also identifies the Lignite Energy Council as the client for the analysis. That sponsorship does not automatically invalidate the work, but readers should know who commissioned it and should examine the assumptions before accepting the headline number.
The underlying issue deserves attention regardless of the exact estimate: environmental requirements can affect whether an existing generating plant remains available, how much it costs to operate, and what must be built to replace it.
The article quotes Alliance Resource Partners chief executive Joe Craft arguing that existing coal plants can provide additional electricity at competitive cost. He cites an Indiana study finding that much of the existing coal fleet could produce electricity more cheaply than new combined-cycle gas generation, while existing combined-cycle plants were already heavily utilized. New York has decommissioned its coal plants so this is not applicable in the state.
For New York, the useful connection is the distinction between the cost of continuing to operate an existing resource or even repowering the facility and the cost of building a green field replacement system. A comparison that considers only the operating cost or emissions of the existing plant can miss replacement generation, transmission, storage, and reliability requirements.
There are legitimate environmental reasons to regulate power plants. The relevant question is whether a particular compliance schedule produces benefits commensurate with its costs and whether dependable replacements will be operating before existing resources leave service.
That is why this article provides another rationale for a pause, rather than a justification for accepting every claim made by its authors. New York should evaluate retirement and compliance decisions against a transparent replacement-cost and reliability analysis of renewable resources..
A mandate does not make replacement resources available. Before allowing policy deadlines to remove dependable capacity, the State should demonstrate that the replacement portfolio can provide the necessary service and disclose what customers will pay for it.
The Opportunity Cost of Choosing Wind and Solar
Stu Turley’s The $5 Trillion Question: What Wind and Solar Bought, and What Nuclear Could Have Bought Instead raises an important question about opportunity cost. Money, construction capacity, equipment, and skilled labor devoted to one energy strategy cannot simultaneously be devoted to another. The relevant comparison is therefore not simply whether wind and solar produce electricity. It is what alternative investments might have delivered.
The question is relevant to New York. If the objective is dependable, low-emissions electricity, the State should compare alternative ways of providing that service, rather than treating renewable procurement as the objective itself.
A fair comparison must use consistent boundaries over the expected lifetime of the technologies. Wind and solar should include the storage, firming, transmission, and operating support required by the particular system being evaluated. Nuclear should include financing, construction risk, operating costs, outages, fuel, and end-of-life obligations. Neither side should receive favorable assumptions simply because its technology is politically preferred.
The comparison should also distinguish annual energy from dependable output. A dollar spent on a resource available during a prolonged renewable shortfall may provide a different system benefit from a dollar spent producing additional electricity during hours of abundant supply. Grout’s explanation of resource roles and Schernikau’s discussion of continuous service both underscore that distinction.
Turley found that with these constraints nuclear could be cheaper. He estimated the cost to install the solar and wind deployed between 2011 and 2025 was $5.2 trillion to produce 5,491 TWh. Reactor costs vary . At the price of the most recent reactors built in the USA the same output would cost $10.2 trillion. At the other end of the range, the Korean reactors built for the UAE would cost $2.8 trillion. I believe that the most recent reactors in the USA cost will come down if we make a commitment to develop the infrastructure to build multiple reactors. I do not think that comparable price improvements are available for wind, solar, and battery resources.
This does not establish that nuclear is always the least-cost choice or that additional wind and solar have no value. It establishes the need to compare complete portfolios that meet the same reliability and emissions requirements.
For New York, that is another reason to pause the present approach. Before locking customers into further long-lived commitments, the State should publish an independently reviewed comparison of realistic alternatives.
The question should be: which combination of existing resources, new firm generation, renewables, storage, and transmission provides dependable electricity at the lowest reasonable total cost? A technology quota is not an adequate substitute for that analysis.
Discussion
These articles are most persuasive when read as challenges to the planning process, rather than as proof that a particular technology must always succeed or fail.
Grout explains why resources perform different jobs. The battery analysis explains why energy shifting is not equivalent to continuous supply. The solar discussion highlights the need to define what is actually being replaced. Turley’s opening asks what alternative investments might have provided. Together, they support several requirements before New York makes further irreversible implementation decisions:
- Demonstrate reliability using chronological analysis across multiple weather years, including prolonged renewable shortfalls.
- Identify the firm resources needed during those shortfalls and establish credible deployment schedules.
- Compare complete resource portfolios using the same demand forecast, reliability standard, and financial assumptions.
- Disclose total customer costs, not just individual project prices.
- Link retirement schedules to demonstrated replacement capability rather than expectations that necessary resources will become available.
Conclusion
The strongest reason to pause Climate Act implementation is not a dramatic headline or a single disputed cost estimate. It is the need to demonstrate that the proposed system can provide dependable electric service at an acceptable total cost. The State should show how the system will work—and show its math—before requiring everyone else to pay for it.






















