Someday Scrooge Will Say No

Richard Ellenbogen recently sent an email to his distribution that highlighted an inevitable problem with New York State’s net-zero mandate of the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (Climate Act).  The plan is to electrify everything possible using renewable energy.  That brings up the problem that the local electric distribution system is not up to the task so it is likely that electric use could be limited at times in New York’s future.

Ellenbogen is the President [BIO] Allied Converters and frequently copies me on emails that address various issues associated with the Climate Act.  I have published other articles by Ellenbogen and a description of his keynote address to the Business Council of New York 2023 Renewable Energy Conference Energy titled: “Energy on Demand as the Life Blood of Business and Entrepreneurship in the State -video here:  Why NY State Must Rethink Its Energy Plan and Ten Suggestions to Help Fix the Problems.” I recently described his presentation on New York’s Energy Transition that is a detailed explanation why the State’s quest for zero emissions electricity generated by wind and solar is doomed to failure.

There are only a few people in New York that are trying to educate people about the risks of the Climate Act with as much passion as I am but Richard certainly fits that description.  He comes at the problem as an engineer who truly cares about the environment and how best to improve the environment without unintended consequences.  He has spent an enormous amount of time honing his presentation summarizing the problems he sees but most of all the environmental performance record of his business shows that he is walking the walk.  

Climate Act Overview

The Climate Act established a New York “Net Zero” target (85% reduction and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050.  It includes an interim 2030 reduction target of a 40% reduction by 2030 and a requirement that all electricity generated be “zero-emissions” by 2040. The Climate Action Council (CAC) is responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlines how to “achieve the State’s bold clean energy and climate agenda.”  In brief, that plan is to electrify everything possible using zero-emissions electricity. The Integration Analysis prepared by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and its consultants quantifies the impact of the electrification strategies.  That material was used to develop the Draft Scoping Plan.  After a year-long review, the Scoping Plan recommendations were finalized at the end of 2022.  In 2023 the Scoping Plan recommendations were supposed to be implemented through regulation and legislation.  Ellenbogen’s discussion describes one of the issues that was not addressed in 2023.

Record Christmas Lights

Ellenbogen described a home in Union Vale, NY where the residents set the world record for most lights in a residential Christmas display with 720,420 lights in the display.  He provided links describing the the record lights from the New York Times:

I cannot get around the Times paywall so I could not see those articles but found a relevant story at Good Morning America that includes a video.

Ellenbogen writes:

Independent of any issues raised in the article, the following comment by a neighbor stands out.

Bernadette and William Burke, who love to watch the show from their hot tub, but for years could not use their washing machine or dishwasher while the lights were on. Mr. Gay said the problem was resolved when the electric company put the Gay house on its own transformer.

He estimated the power requirements:

Below is a table of power consumption of various Christmas bulbs. Using a back-of-the-napkin calculation, the display probably draws about 75 – 100 KVA.   Most utility transformers in residential areas are sized between 70 KVA and 150 KVA.  Below are photos from a NYSERDA report that I wrote in 2010 for the reactive power project I did for them.  Note that a transformer used to support five buildings in a Garden Apartment complex had a capacity of 150 KVA and a transformer for two buildings had a capacity of 75 KVA.  Both of these transformers operated near their capacity on a hot summer day and would far exceed that capacity with widespread installation of heat pumps.

Ellenbogen compared the power consumption of the display to heat pumps and car charging that are components of the Scoping Plan outline of control strategies to meet the Climate Act mandates:

The three heat pumps in my home will draw about 22 KW at peak load for 250,000 BTU of heat transfer in heating mode (1000 watts per ton  COP=3.52 ).  The power draw in cooling mode is about 60 % of that (600 watts per ton  COP=5.86 ).  We also have gas furnaces with an output of 400,000 BTU that will operate on extremely cold days or will operate if there is an issue with the heat pumps.

My car charges at a peak load of 14,000 watts.  I have seen loads of 38,000 watts on the power monitor at my house when I am charging the car during the winter.  When I built my house, I had a 400 amp 3phase service installed.  It can deliver 144 KVA ( 144,000 watts) at peak load and the transformer across the street is 150 KVA.  Most newer homes might have a 200 amp single phase service (40 KVA) and older homes will have a 100 amp or 150 amp service (20 – 30 KVA).

Discussion

Ellenbogen argues that the fact that a neighbor was impacted by a large load by a neighbor has ramifications when everyone has to increase their electrical requirements:

The point is that if the utility system can’t support a Christmas display, even a large one, and allow the neighbors to wash their clothes at the same time, how is it going to support the massive load of heat pumps and vehicle charging that is being mandated.  That combination will far exceed the demand of a Christmas light display.  As I have mentioned previously, every transformer in the state is going to have to be replaced or have their service upgraded as occurred at the home in the article.  The problem is that there is an acute transformer shortage along with a shortage of electricians and utilities are worried about having a sufficient number of transformers to recover after a bad storm, let alone having enough to rebuild the entire system.

Also note that the GMA piece on the record light display mentioned that the owners claim that their electric bill is only $300.  New York utilities are installing smart meters that will eventually enable them to charge customers different rates at different times of the day.  The idea is that they will increase rates to incentivize customers to reduce use during peak load periods.  In the all-electric future the peak load will be in the early evening when homeowners get home from work and turn on appliances.  I would not be surprised at all if the costs for the massive display might increase so much that they would be unable to afford the costs even with LED lights.

Although the utilities claim that customers will not lose control of their electric use, I suspect that is also inevitable because of the scale of the problem.  As a result, someday Scrooge will say no you cannot have a record light show.

Conclusion

Ellenbogen said he was going to send a magic wand to the Public Service Commission to help them with the Climate Act transition because they are going to need all the help that they can get.  I agree with his conclusion: “Since math and science have been thrown out the window in New York State, we might as well turn to the occult.”