Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York Principle 7: Golden Rule of Climate Extremes

This is a background post for my pragmatic environmentalist principles listed on the principles page of this blog.

Dr. Cliff Mass defines the Golden Rule of Climate Extremes as: The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.

I am posting this soon after Harvey made landfall, dumped extraordinary amounts of rain, and the impact of global warming on it made the news. The question that came up was the effect of climate change on the storm. The Capitol Weather Gang claims the truth is in the middle. Note that Dr. Mass concluded that global warming effects on Harvey were immaterial.

The golden rule of climate extremes is important to keep in mind because I believe it is important to point out that most climate scientists do not have extensive weather forecasting experience. It is that experience that enables meteorologists to properly determine the role of natural variability to a particular event. When an operational meteorologist looks at this kind of weather event, for example Joe Bastardi, natural variation invariably provides most of the impact.

Author: rogercaiazza

I am a meteorologist (BS and MS degrees), was certified as a consulting meteorologist and have worked in the air quality industry for over 40 years. Originally I worked for consultants doing air quality modeling work for EPA and then went to work with electric utilities where I was responsible for compliance reporting and analyzed the impact and efficacy of air quality regulations. I retired from working for one utility company full-time in 2010 and then worked part-time for most of the New York utility companies as the Director of an environmental trade association until my full retirement at the end of 2016. Environmental staff in any industry have to be pragmatic balancing risks and benefits and I hope my blog ( reflects that outlook. Jokingly our job description is to bring the companies we represent to the table so that they are not on the menu. Any of my comments on the web or posts on my blog are my opinion only. In no way do they reflect the position of any of my past employers or any company I was associated with.

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