This is a background post for my pragmatic environmentalist principles listed on the principles page of this blog.
Dr. Cliff Mass defines the Golden Rule of Climate Extremes as: The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.
I am posting this soon after Harvey made landfall, dumped extraordinary amounts of rain, and the impact of global warming on it made the news. The question that came up was the effect of climate change on the storm. The Capitol Weather Gang claims the truth is in the middle. Note that Dr. Mass concluded that global warming effects on Harvey were immaterial.
The golden rule of climate extremes is important to keep in mind because I believe it is important to point out that most climate scientists do not have extensive weather forecasting experience. It is that experience that enables meteorologists to properly determine the role of natural variability to a particular event. When an operational meteorologist looks at this kind of weather event, for example Joe Bastardi, natural variation invariably provides most of the impact.