On November 4, 2024, the Department of Public Service (DPS) staff proposed definitions for two key components of the 2040 target. This post describes some of the comments submitted on the draft. It is necessary to read between the lines of the electric industry comments to appreciate their concerns about the future electric system.
I am convinced that implementation of the New York Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) net-zero mandates will do more harm than good if the future electric system relies only on wind, solar, and energy storage because of reliability and affordability risks. I have followed the Climate Act since it was first proposed, submitted comments on the Climate Act implementation plan, and have written over 500 articles about New York’s net-zero transition. The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect the position of any of my previous employers or any other organization I have been associated with, these comments are mine alone.
Summary – if you don’t have over ten minutes to read the whole thing
The Climate Act has a target that all electricity must be generated by “zero-emissions” resources by 2040. DPS staff proposed a definition of “zero-emissions” in November 2024 nearly five years after the law was promulgated. It is increasingly obvious that the Scoping Plan is inadequate for the task of implementing a “zero emissions” electric system. Both the electric grid operator and a consortium of electric utilities provided comments on the proposed definition that emphasized the need for a comprehensive plan that prioritizes electric reliability. Environmental advocacy organization comments underestimate the reliability challenges and recommend changes that would hinder development of a reliable grid. I believe that the Hochul Administration is at a crossroads, and it is not clear that they will change direction to a rational approach based on reality or continue the present path of ideological purity.
Overview
The Climate Act established a New York “Net Zero” target (85% reduction in GHG emissions and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050. Two targets address the electric sector: 70% of the electricity must come from renewable energy by 2030 and all electricity must be generated by “zero-emissions” resources by 2040. The Climate Action Council (CAC) was responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlined how to “achieve the State’s bold clean energy and climate agenda.” The Scoping Plan was finalized at the end of 2022. Since then, the State has been trying to implement the Scoping Plan recommendations through regulations, proceedings, and legislation.
I believe that the biggest shortcoming of the Hochul Administration’s implementation of the Climate Act is the lack of a plan. For example, to implement a transition to meet the mandate that all electricity must be generated by “zero-emissions” resources by 2040 it is first necessary to define “zero emissions”. Amazingly, draft definitions were not proposed for over four years. On November 4, 2024, the DPS staff proposal concerning definitions for key terms (Staff Proposal) in Public Service Law §66-p that finally defined “zero emissions”. The Introduction of the Staff Proposal explains:
In this proposal, the Department of Public Service Staff (Staff) suggests interpretations of key terms in the provisions of the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (Climate Act), codified in Section 66-p of the Public Service Law (PSL), which directs the Public Service Commission (Commission) to establish a renewable energy program and design it to achieve particular targets. At issue in this proposal is the language of PSL §66-p(2)(b), which directs the Commission to establish a program pursuant to which, by the year 2040, the “statewide electrical demand system will be zero emissions.” Of particular note, neither of the terms “statewide electrical demand system” nor “zero emissions” are expressly defined in the Climate Act or in the PSL. This lack of statutory definition requires the Commission’s interpretation of these terms to ensure proper regulatory implementation.
This post describes some of the comments submitted on these definitions.
New York Independent System Operator (NYISO)
NYISO runs the electricity market and is “dedicated to planning a reliable grid of the future, leveraging open and fair electricity markets, and informing policymakers and stakeholders.” They submitted their comments on January 21, 2025. The NYISO frustrates me because they pull their punches when they file comments. Rich Ellenbogen shares my frustration and sent me an email describing their filing that exemplifies my concern. He wrote: “The NYISO is screaming between the lines of their filing again. The filing is attached and addresses electricity reliability margins across the state”. He commented on three of their comments.
NYISO comment on Page 4:
To achieve the zero-emission standard, significant quantities of new resources, which satisfy the zero-emission definition, and provide the necessary energy and reliability attributes, will be required to support a reliable electric system. Development, permitting, siting, and interconnection of existing and emerging zero-emission electricity supply will require significant capitalization over a relatively short period of time.
Ellenbogen Response:
Regarding the above statement, financing, siting, permitting, and interconnection will do nothing if the technologies don’t exist at scale to implement the plan. At present, the necessary technologies don’t exist at scale or don’t exist at all, with the exception of nuclear which is a four-letter word in NY State. You can’t buy and install Dispatchable Emission Free Resources (DEFR’s) that aren’t available and sufficient nuclear generation won’t exist at scale until well after the CLCPA mandated dates even if planning was started today.
NYISO comment on Page 5:
Overly restrictive compliance obligations could prevent emitting generators from operating to support system reliability or serving consumer demand and potentially force generators to retire before suitable replacement resources are available. Insufficient availability of electric generation could adversely impact public health, welfare, and safety.
NYISO comment on Page 6:
Electric system reliability margins are already close to minimum reliability requirements in certain areas across New York and are tightening. If these margins are totally depleted, the reliability of the grid would be at an unacceptable risk and power outages could disrupt normal life or negatively impact public health, welfare, and safety. The NYISO’s 2024 Reliability Needs Assessment (“RNA”) identifies a reliability need beginning in summer 2033 within New York City, primarily driven by a combination of forecasted increases in peak demand, limited additional supply, the assumed retirement of the NYPA small gas plants based on state legislation, and assumed unavailability of generators impacted by the DEC Peaker Rule.
Ellenbogen Response:
A translation for the two statements above, simply put is: “If you don’t let us run the existing generation that we have and force us to shut them down to meet your standards of ideological purity, you won’t have any lights or electricity for anything else. We are already running on fumes, and it is going to get worse.”
Why the NYISO can’t just come out and say what they mean without such subtlety is a disservice to the people of NY State. No one wants to say outright how ridiculously bad the state energy policy is so everyone keeps beating around the bush and in the interim, the state is like a runaway train headed towards a collapsed bridge.
The utilities aren’t doing a service for their ratepayers or themselves either. I understand that they don’t want to run afoul of the state government and lose their certification, but they are the ones that are going to be turned into piñatas when this goes bad, which is inevitable. It’s not a matter of if, just when. Are people actually going to have to die before someone comes out directly and acknowledges how bad this energy policy is?
Joint Utilities
An ad hoc group of utilities also submitted comments. The Joint Utilities are Central Hudson Gas & Electric Corporation, Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Inc. Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation d/b/a National Grid, New York State Electric & Gas Corporation, Orange and Rockland Utilities, Inc., and Rochester Gas and Electric Corporation. As Ellenbogen noted these companies face existential threats if they speak out too strongly in the politically charged New York environment because there are proposals to take them over and have the State operate them. Even if the politicians don’t shut them down, the Hochul Administration certainly can punish the companies when their rate cases are decided. Nonetheless, I agree that they are doing a disservice to their customers by not speaking out. Their comments on this proceeding are a step forward because they made recommendations that imply there are problems.
I was encouraged by the following statement because it aligns with my argument that there is no plan in place to implement the Climate Act:
The reliability of electricity in the state is of primary importance to the Joint Utilities. For the reasons set forth below, the Joint Utilities request that the Commission direct Staff to collaborate with the NYISO and the Joint Utilities to develop a comprehensive plan to achieve zero emissions generation to meet New York State’s demand by 2040 in a manner that ensures reliability of the electric system throughout the clean energy transition to a zero emissions electric system. This plan should address current supply and demand trends within the power sector. If the cessation of greenhouse gas-emitting generation post-2040 creates a large gap between supply and demand, the plan should also include strategies of how best to retain, manage and retire generation to maintain system reliability and resource adequacy.
It is important to read between the lines of this paragraph:
Clear guidance and decisive action are essential to advancing our state’s zero-emission targets while ensuring resource adequacy and affordability are not compromised. There are fewer than five years before the first target takes effect and only fifteen years to achieve zero emissions by 2040, so it is crucial to act promptly. From an electric planning, permitting, and construction perspective, the feasibility of this timeline will be significantly challenging.
My interpretation is that they are saying there isn’t clear guidance and decisive recommendations for action that ensure resource adequacy and affordability are not compromised. I wholeheartedly agree. They also point out time is getting short to meet the electric sector targets. When regulated companies with significant exposure to political retribution say “significantly challenging” they are really saying this won’t work! The Joint Utility comments go on:
The Joint Utilities recommend that the Commission direct Staff to develop a clear roadmap that addresses future system needs, potential gaps in supply and demand and clear methodologies to characterize those gaps, clean energy technology readiness, sufficient access to generation to the extent gaps are identified, and resource attributes necessary for the reliable operation of New York’s electric system amid ongoing growth in intermittent renewable supply and electric demand.
I have been taught that failing to plan is planning to fail. This comment is a clear indictment of the Scoping Plan and the transition implementation to date because it says that there is no comprehensive plan that addresses these concerns. I endorse the Joint Utility recommendation that:
Given the potential for New York’s clean energy resources to fall short of demand, or suffer from delayed entry for various reasons, and the challenges associated with the commercial availability and maturity of new energy technologies, the Commission should require Staff to develop a plan for the development of incremental renewables, the retirement of non-compliant resources, and methodologies to address gaps between existing resources and the reliability needs of the system, while also ensuring that reliability and resource adequacy do not suffer. Staff should also consider the development status and lead time of new and existing technologies from research and development to their commercial deployment. It is imperative to address these issues, set expectations and identify needs for the journey towards the 2040 zero emissions target.
The missing point is an explicit statement explaining if the Commission does not follow these recommendations, then there will be blackouts. There is one other comment I want to highlight:
Lastly, the Coordinated Grid Planning Process (“CGPP”) confirms the conclusion of the NYISO and academic research that there is a large gap between supply and demand and “there is no consensus among CGPP participants about the technologies that could be deployed to meet the estimated 17GW need.” These factors are concerning, and it is imperative to incorporate these realities into the roadmap assumptions. While transitioning to a clean energy system, it is also imperative to ensure adequate generating resources are retained and available, regardless of technology, which is permissible because the Clean Energy Standard does not require the retirement of existing generators.
The large gap between supply and demand is referring to the dispatchable emissions-free resource (DEFR) issue that I discuss whenever I suggest a feasibility study is needed before any more money and effort is invested in what could be a false technology solution. Note that the last sentence emphasizes that existing facilities should not be shut down prematurely.
Environmental Advocacy Comments
Earthjustice, Sierra Club, the Alliance for Clean Energy New York, NY Renews, and Fossil Free Tompkins also filed comments. I think that these organizations underestimate the challenge of meeting the large gap between supply and demand. They submitted comments in June arguing that the December 2023 technical conference presentations had overestimated the magnitude of the gap. In July I filed a comment explaining that if anything, projections of the severity of the gap have been under-estimated because winds across large areas are correlated . Earthjustice and Sierra Club responded arguing among other things that “There is no reason to believe that wind speeds offshore of New York City, Long Island, and the Massachusetts Cape will be significantly correlated with land-based wind resources located in Upstate New York.” I dropped the ball and have not responded to that documenting the results of an analysis released after their comments were filed that shows that New York onshore and offshore winds do correlate.
I did publish an article describing a New York wind lull last September that shows that land-based wind resources do correlate with New York’s South Fork offshore wind project. New York presently has 2,454 MW of wind capacity. I analyzed a 192- hour period from 12 September 2024 hour 0000 to 19 September 2024 hour 2300. I found that the minimum wind capacity occurred on 13 September at hour 12 when a total of 0.2 MW of wind power was generated. There were 96 hours representing half the period when the capacity of all the wind generation in New York was less than 5%. All but one of the hours had a capacity factor of less than 20%. Even the best was unimpressive. The maximum wind capacity occurred on 19 September at hour 21 when 502 MW of wind power was generated, only 20.5% of the total capacity. Because South Fork was in operation and included in the total, it is reasonable to assume that for at least 96 hours the wind speeds offshore were significantly correlated with New York land-based wind.
The emphasis in the environmental organization comments on the zero-emission definition was ideological support of the strictest interpretation of “zero”. They disagreed with pragmatic Department of Public Service recommendations and suggested that: “the Public Service Commission adopt a plain meaning interpretation of “emissions” that includes both greenhouse and non-greenhouse gases and interpret the “statewide electrical demand system” to include behind-the-meter resources that participate indirectly in jurisdictional markets. Their suggestions make what I think is already impossible challenge even more difficult and expensive.
Conclusion
This post notes that both the NYISO and the Joint Utilities’ comments on the zero-emission definitions suggest that there will be consequences if there is no plan and recommend a re-assessment of the schedule. I agree completely.
The environmental organizations who commented reiterated their ideological position that zero emissions of all pollutants is required and must occur as fast as possible to maintain the Climate Act schedule. Those comments disregard all the indications that it is impossible,
The Trump Administration’s recent announcements, last summer’s acknowledgment that the 2030 electric sector goal would not be met, and the increasingly desperate comments by New York’s electric sector are all warnings to the Hochul Administration. It seems to me that a pause to re-assess what can be done without endangering affordability and reliability could be proposed because of all the factors beyond New York’s control.
Ellenbogen asked whether people are going to have to die before someone comes out directly and acknowledges how bad this energy policy is. I wish I was optimistic that this will not be the case but there is no evidence yet that the leadership of New York is willing to back off their ideological soapbox and admit the current Climate Act energy policy cannot work despite a plethora of evidence.
Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York 