On November 4, 2024, the Department of Public Service (DPS) staff proposed definitions for two key components of the 2040 zero emissions Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) target. Recently I described the electric industry response comments that suggest that there will be consequences if there is no plan and recommend a re-assessment of the schedule. This post describes comments that Richard Ellenbogen and I filed that recommends the implementation process be paused until certain issues are resolved.
I am convinced that implementation of the Climate Act net-zero mandates will do more harm than good if the future electric system relies only on wind, solar, and energy storage because of reliability and affordability risks. I have followed the Climate Act since it was first proposed, submitted comments on the Climate Act implementation plan, and have written over 500 articles about New York’s net-zero transition. The opinions expressed in this article only reflect my position and not necessarily those of Richard Ellenbogen.
Richard Ellenbogen has been speaking to NY State policy makers and regulators since 2019 regarding the deficiencies inherent in NY State Energy policy. He has a proven record implementing carbon reduction programs at his own manufacturing business in Westchester County where has reduced its electric utility load by 80% while reducing its carbon footprint by 30% – 40% below that of the downstate system. I have previously published other articles by Ellenbogen including a summary description of his issues with the Climate Act.
Overview
The Climate Act established a New York “Net Zero” target (85% reduction in GHG emissions and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050. Two targets address the electric sector: 70% of the electricity must come from renewable energy by 2030 and all electricity must be generated by “zero-emissions” resources by 2040. The Climate Action Council (CAC) was responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlined how to “achieve the State’s bold clean energy and climate agenda.” The Scoping Plan was finalized at the end of 2022. Since then, the State has been trying to implement the Scoping Plan recommendations through regulations, proceedings, and legislation.
I believe that the biggest shortcoming of the Hochul Administration’s implementation of the Climate Act is the lack of a plan. For example, to implement a transition to meet the mandate that all electricity must be generated by “zero-emissions” resources by 2040 it is first necessary to define “zero emissions”. Amazingly, draft definitions were not proposed for over four years. On November 4, 2024, the DPS staff proposal concerning definitions for key terms (Staff Proposal) in Public Service Law §66-p that finally defined “zero emissions”. The Introduction of the Staff Proposal explains:
In this proposal, the Department of Public Service Staff (Staff) suggests interpretations of key terms in the provisions of the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (Climate Act), codified in Section 66-p of the Public Service Law (PSL), which directs the Public Service Commission (Commission) to establish a renewable energy program and design it to achieve particular targets. At issue in this proposal is the language of PSL §66-p(2)(b), which directs the Commission to establish a program pursuant to which, by the year 2040, the “statewide electrical demand system will be zero emissions.” Of particular note, neither of the terms “statewide electrical demand system” nor “zero emissions” are expressly defined in the Climate Act or in the PSL. This lack of statutory definition requires the Commission’s interpretation of these terms to ensure proper regulatory implementation.
This post describes the comments that Ellenbogen and I filed for this proceeding.
Electric Industry Filings
We endorsed the filings made by the New York Independent System Operator and the Joint Utilities in response to the proposed definitions of “statewide electrical demand system” and “zero emissions” that I summarized earlier. We agreed that it is necessary to draft implementing regulations that rely on consistent and clear definitions to satisfy the zero emissions by the 2040 standard and to maintain electric system reliability. It is also essential that imported energy is treated consistently and transparently. Moreover, to maintain system reliability in a zero emissions electric system that meets the aspirational Climate Act schedule, new technologies and expanded existing technologies must be deployed on an unprecedented scale.
The theme of our comments is that the implementation process should be paused until certain issues are resolved to prevent a waste of effort on false solutions. One example reason is that a plan must be in place first and that is consistent with this Joint Utility recommendation:
Given the potential for New York’s clean energy resources to fall short of demand, or suffer from delayed entry for various reasons, and the challenges associated with the commercial availability and maturity of new energy technologies, the Commission should require Staff to develop a plan for the development of incremental renewables, the retirement of non-compliant resources, and methodologies to address gaps between existing resources and the reliability needs of the system, while also ensuring that reliability and resource adequacy do not suffer. Staff should also consider the development status and lead time of new and existing technologies from research and development to their commercial deployment. It is imperative to address these issues, set expectations and identify needs for the journey towards the 2040 zero emissions target.
Criteria for Pausing
The overarching reason to pause the process is that the safety valve provisions for affordability and reliability that are directly related to the zero emissions resource in New York Public Service Law § 66-p (4). “Establishment of a renewable energy program” are not defined. The implementation process should be paused for anything beyond Behind the Meter (BTM) generation sources and load reductions until criteria are defined and a tracking process established for “safe and adequate electric service” and “significant increase in arrears or service disconnections”. Without established criteria it is impossible to fulfill this legal mandate.
Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resources (DEFR)
Responsible New York agencies all agree that new DEFR technologies are needed to make a solar and wind-reliant electric energy system work reliably. No one knows what those technologies are. We believe the only likely viable DEFR backup technology is nuclear generation because it is the only candidate resource that is technologically ready, can be expanded as needed, and does not suffer from limitations of the Second Law of Thermodynamics.
This situation is a fundamental reason why a pause is necessary. If the only viable DEFR solution is nuclear, then the wind, solar, and energy storage approach cannot be implemented without nuclear power. Using nuclear solely as a backup is inappropriate because it works best as a baseload resource. Developing baseload nuclear eliminates the need for a huge DEFR backup resource and massive buildout of wind turbines and solar panels sprawling over the state’s lands and water. Although nuclear power is expensive when compared to the resources needed for a wind, solar, energy storage, and DEFR system that all have shorter expected operational life spans it is likely that it would be cheaper.
NYSERDA and DPS have mentioned a related five-year plan presumably to determine what technology should be used going forward. It is obviously prudent to pause renewable development until some DEFR technology is proven feasible. The choice and even the viability of any DEFR technology will affect the entire design of the future electric structure necessary to meet the Climate Act net-zero energy system.
Lithium-Ion Storage Safety Concerns
The Climate Act “Resilient and Distributed Grid goal is 1,500MW of energy storage, expanding to 3,000 MW by 2030”. The Peak Coalition has recommended that battery storage replace peaking power plants and have endorsed the Rise Light & Power Renewable Ravenswood initiative that proposes to transition Ravenswood Generating Station into a clean energy hub. The plan involves the replacement of Ravenwood’s remaining peaking capacity with “a mix of offshore wind, upstate renewables, district heating, and large-scale battery storage”.
However, there are substantive safety concerns. These Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) must overcome space constraint issues and are not proven technology. When a leading expert on batteries says: “Everybody has to be educated how to use these batteries safely”, we think the best course of action is to follow his advice. It is not appropriate to make the residents of the disadvantaged communities near a BESS become unwilling lab rats to test whether a technology that can generate toxic gases, cause fires, and create explosions is appropriate in an urban setting.
A recent incident reinforces this energy storage safety issue and is another reason to pause implementation. Our comments argued that it is appropriate to consider what would happen if there was a fire at Ravenswood like the fire at the Moss Landing energy storage facility in California. Our comments were based on the analysis described in my Implications of the Moss Landing Battery Plant Fire article. At Moss Landing, there were 7,676 acres under evacuation with only 1,214 people living there. Richard Ellenbogen described the impacts of a fire at Ravenswood if it required a similar evacuation zone. A similar fire would require at least a shelter in place order and possibly an evacuation order for nearly a million people to say nothing about shutting down highways within the entire area circled by Routes 278 and 495 as well as the East River. Our comments posed questions about the ramifications within this area and the Roosevelt Island community in the East River opposite Ravenswood. Clearly, these safety concerns must be addressed before BESS facilities are built to replace peaking power plants in New York City.
BESS Timing
There are deployment timing issues that also should be addressed. Our comments posed the question why these facilities are even needed at this time. As Ravenswood is being redeveloped as a “Clean Energy Hub” it is not clear how much clean energy will there be to charge the batteries in the foreseeable future. The Clean Path NY transmission line designed to bring renewables to NY City from Central NY is up in the air. The termination of offshore wind by the Trump administration is another roadblock. Even if it weren’t threatened by the Trump administration it is likely that significant offshore wind is likely more than 10 years away due to high costs, supply chain constraints and a lack of Jones Act compliant Jack ships needed for the installations. We concluded that it will be years before sufficient zero-emissions energy is available for this facility.
A BESS facility built today will be storing fossil fuel-based generation with an average carbon footprint of approximately 950 pounds of CO2 per MWh as per EPA figures for the downstate NY utility system. With 15% – 20% charge-discharge losses added that carbon footprint is increased to over 1100 pounds of CO2 per MWh for any BESS System in the downstate area. In comparison, a highly polluting 60-year-old generating plant like EF Barrett or any of the peaking power plants that the Peak Coalition wants replaced could be replaced with a Combined Cycle gas plant with CO2 emissions of about 800 pounds per MWh, 30% lower than the battery facilities and will have a lifetime five to six times longer.
This is another reason to pause the process. New York State and New York City are not California where renewable development is much further along. Solar arrays generate far less energy per acre in NY State and as a result, the state is many years away from needing these BESS facilities. By the time that there are sufficient renewables available in NY State to create the Duck Curve and a need to charge the batteries, any Li-ion batteries installed now will have deteriorated past their 8 – 10-year operating life. As a result, NY State ratepayers will be saddled with hundreds of millions of dollars of expenses on their utility bills that had the net effect of raising New York City and state carbon footprint more than the peaker plants that they are designed to replace
Conclusion
We concluded our comments by endorsing the Joint Utility statement recommendation that the Commission direct Staff to develop a clear roadmap that addresses, among other things, clean energy technology readiness. This recommendation would not be necessary if there was a clear roadmap available. In the absence of such a plan the Hochul Administration’s approach to meet the Climate Act targets has been to push ahead without consideration of technological ramifications. The Moss Landing BESS fire underscores the risk of such an approach. It would be inappropriate to proceed with BESS installations in New York City and the other densely populated regions of New York State until the full scope of safety risks are understood. Additionally, the entire process should be paused until the state has a clear understanding of what resources will be needed to safely implement a sound energy plan. This will prevent the squandering of resources on technologies that will not reduce GHG emissions and will help to ensure safety and economic vitality for New York State residents.
Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York 