Author: rogercaiazza

For the past month or so I have been preparing comments on the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC)  proposed revisions to their Part 242 CO2 Budget Trading Program rule. I submitted the comments on June 26, 2020. In a companion post I addressed the background for the rule revisions and rationale used for the significant rule changes. This post summarizes my comments on the Regulatory Impact State that justifies the proposed revisions.

I submitted comments because I want my family to be able to afford to continue to live in New York State.  The proposed rule is consistent with the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (“Climate Act”) that will necessarily affect the price of energy in New York and based on results elsewhere I believe those costs will ultimately be unacceptable.  I have written a series of posts on the feasibility, implications and consequences of the law.  I am a retired electric utility meteorologist with nearly 40 years of experience analyzing the effects of emissions on the environment.  The opinions expressed in this post do not reflect the position of any of my previous employers or any other company I have been associated with, these comments are mine alone.

Introduction

I describe the specifics of the proposed revisions and my concerns in the companion post.  One of the purported benefits of this regulation is that New York’s climate leadership will entice other jurisdictions to emulate New York by setting an example.  However, the justification provided for these revisions provides New York citizens insufficient evidence to support the proposed changes and sets a poor example for others to follow.  I analyzed the claims in the Regulatory Impact Statement (RIS) that were used to justify the proposed actions and I will discuss those comments here.  The RIS has mandatory discussion items and I will not address my comments on items not related to justification of the proposed actions.

Regulatory Impact Statement

The Regulatory Impact Statement (RIS) is a mandated component of DEC rule-making.  It describes the statutory authority and legislative objectives, lists the needs and benefits, estimates costs, changes to paperwork, local government mandates, notes if there is any duplication with other Federal and State regulations, lists alternative, determines if the regulation is consistent with Federal standards and provides a compliance schedule.  I wish I could say that the RIS makes a compelling case for the proposed action but I can’t. This is important because one of the purported benefits of this regulation and New York’s climate leadership is that New York will lead the way for others setting an example that they will emulate.  However, absent compelling arguments, that benefit will not be realized. 

The general approach for current New York energy and environmental rule-making associated with climate change is to unequivocally associate Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) with a litany of climate change impacts that are happening now and will get much worse in the future.  I have been planning to spend time addressing this simplistic argument for a long time and this regulation gave me the opportunity to comment.  In the following sections using the titles from the RIS, I quote text from sections in the RIS and provide my comments in the following italicized, indented sections. 

Introduction

The burning of fossil fuels to generate electricity is a major contributor to climate change because fossil-fuel generators emit large amounts of CO₂, the principal greenhouse gas (GHG). Overwhelming scientific evidence confirms that a warming climate poses a serious threat to the environmental resources and public health of New York State – the very same resources and public health the Legislature has charged the Department to preserve and protect. The warming climate threatens the health and well-being of the State’s residents and citizens, the State’s property, and the natural resources held in trust by the State, including, but not limited to, the State’s air quality, water quality, marine and freshwater fisheries, salt and freshwater wetlands, surface and subsurface drinking water supplies, river and stream impoundment infrastructure, and forest species and wildlife habitats. Not only will the proposed Program revisions help to further counter the threat of a warming climate, they will also produce significant environmental co-benefits in the form of improved local air quality, and a more robust, diverse and clean energy supply in the State.

The biggest flaw in the RIS is the failure to quantify the impact of the proposed action on the alleged impacts of a warming climate.  Instead there are vague allusions that the proposed revisions will “help to further counter the threat of a warming climate”.  In order to properly evaluate the benefits and costs of the proposed revisions the RIS should estimate the global warming potential impacts of the proposed action. 

 In the absence of such an evaluation I calculated the effect  of total elimination of New York’s 1990 218.1[1] million metric ton greenhouse gas emissions on projected global temperature rise.  I found there would be a reduction, or a “savings,” of approximately 0.0032°C by the year 2050 and 0.0067°C by the year 2100.  To give you an idea of how small this temperature change is  consider changes with elevation and latitude.  Generally, temperature decreases three (3) degrees Fahrenheit for every 1,000-foot increase in elevation above sea level.  The projected temperature difference is the same as going down 27 inches.  The general rule is that temperature changes three (3) degrees Fahrenheit for every 300-mile change in latitude at an elevation of sea level.  The projected temperature change is the same as going south two thirds of a mile. 

 Of course, the RIS should project what this particular action will do for global temperature.  The RIS Model Rule Policy Case Program Design Assumption description states that CO₂ emissions in New York are projected to be 3.41 million tons lower in the Model Rule Policy Case than in the Reference Case in 2031.  Using the same methodology as before I found there would be a reduction, or a “savings,” of approximately 0.00005°C by the year 2050 and 0.00009°C by the year 2100.  The projected temperature difference is the same as going down 3/8 of an inch and the projected temperature change is the same as going south 50 feet. 

 New York’s actions should also be considered relative to the rest of the world.  According to the China Electricity Council, about 29.9 gigawatts of new coal power capacity was added in 2019 and a further 46 GW of coal-fired power plants are under construction.  If you assume that the new coal plants are super-critical units with an efficiency of 44% and have a capacity factor of 80%, the reductions provided by this program will be replaced by the added 2019 Chinese capacity in 16 days or 6 days if the 2019 capacity and the units under construction are combined.  Clearly, in the absence of worldwide commitments this proposal has no tangible value to the citizens of New York.

 The RIS also claims that the emission reductions will also produce significant environmental co-benefits in the form of improved local air quality, and a more robust, diverse and clean energy supply in the State.  I take issue with the environmental co-benefits arguments simply because I have never seen documentation that confirms those benefits relative to the observed air quality improvements in my lifetime (see for example my evaluation of PM 2.5 in New York City).  Combining claimed benefits for robust and diverse energy supply with a clean energy supply is unsubstantiated rhetoric.  In order for the power supply to be robust it has to be dispatchable whereas wind and solar clean energy is not.  In order for the power supply to be diverse it cannot be shut down by a singular event and wind and solar can be shut down by a relatively common singular set of weather conditions at night.

The Greenhouse Effect and the Warming Climate

A naturally occurring greenhouse effect has regulated the earth’s climate system for millions of years. Solar radiation that reaches the surface of the earth is radiated back out into the atmosphere as long wave or infrared radiation. CO₂ and other naturally occurring GHG emissions trap heat in our atmosphere, maintaining the average temperature of the planet approximately 60°F above what it would be otherwise. An enhanced greenhouse effect and associated climate change results as large quantities of anthropogenic GHGs, especially CO₂ from the burning of fossil fuels, are added to the atmosphere.

There is no question that the greenhouse effect regulates global temperatures, that additional greenhouse gases will enhance that effect, that anthropogenic GHG emissions have added to the observed trend in GHG atmospheric concentrations, that the climate is warming and that the anthropogenic GHG emissions likely contributed to the observed warming.  However, given that there are many factors affecting climate change and that an enhanced greenhouse effect impacts not only temperature but also moisture which could have a negative feedback, it is naïve to assume that all the observed warming is caused solely by the greenhouse gas effect.

 From 1983 until his retirement in 2013, Dr. Richard Lindzen was Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.  He published over 200 papers and books and his research is still cited about 600 times per year.  He recently published another scientific paper (Lindzen, 2020) that raises some important points relative to the greenhouse effect as it pertains to New York’s energy policies:

 Doubling the atmospheric CO2 concentration from 280 ppm to 560 ppm results in just a 1-2% perturbation to the Earth’s 240 W/m² energy budget. This doubled-CO2 effect has less than 1/5th of the impact that the net cloud effect has. And yet we are asked to accept the “implausible” claim that change in one variable, CO2, is predominantly responsible for altering global temperatures.

 A causal role for CO2 “cannot be claimed” for the glacial-to-interglacial warming events because CO2 variations follow rather than lead the temperature changes in paleoclimate records and the 100 ppm total increase over thousands of years produce “about 1 W/m²” of total radiative impact.

Since the mid-1700’s, atmospheric concentrations of GHGs have increased substantially due to human activities such as fossil fuel use and land-use change. CO₂ has a very long residence time in the atmosphere and, thus, has a lasting effect on the climate. Average atmospheric CO₂ concentrations exceeded 407 parts per million in 2018, which according to ice core data, is higher than at any point in the past 800,000 years and the rate of increase is 100 times faster than previous natural increases at the end of the last ice age.

There are two aspects of these claims.  If you look at the CO2 data going further back in geologic time, as shown in the following grapch, there is nothing particularly unusual about the record breaking CO2 levels of the past 800,000 years  The thing that does stand out however is that we are cooler than in the past.

 The second aspect is the rate of increase claim.  The problem is that measurement resolution of proxy measurements of CO2 and temperature are not as finely resolved as today’s instrumental data.  The only way to directly compare the instrumental data to the pre-industrial proxy data is to filter the instrumental data down to the resolution of the proxy data.  This leads to climate reconstructions with “enhanced variability during pre-industrial times” and “result in a redistribution of weight towards the role of natural factors in forcing temperature changes, thereby relatively devaluing the impact of anthropogenic emissions and affecting future predicted scenarios.”[2]

There is clear scientific consensus that anthropogenic emissions of CO₂ are contributing to the observed warming of the planet as presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The large and persuasive body of research demonstrates through unequivocal evidence that the Earth’s lower atmosphere, oceans, and land surfaces are warming; sea level is rising; and snow cover, mountain glaciers, and Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are shrinking. The Earth’s climate is changing, with adverse consequences already well documented across the globe, in our nation and in the State. Extreme heat events are increasing and intense storms are occurring with greater frequency. Many of the observed climate changes are beyond what can be explained by natural variability of the climate.

This description of the relationship between CO2 emissions and observed warming does not acknowledge that there is any scientific uncertainty about the greenhouse effect and climate change.  The reality is that there is debate and New York State ignores the potential ramifications.  Dr. Richard S. Lindzen, has summarized the scientific debate as follows:

I will simply try to clarify what the debate over climate change is really about. It most certainly is not about whether climate is changing: it always is. It is not about whether CO2 is increasing: it clearly is. It is not about whether the increase in CO2, by itself, will lead to some warming: it should. The debate is simply over the matter of how much warming the increase in CO2 can lead to, and the connection of such warming to the innumerable claimed catastrophes. The evidence is that the increase in CO2 will lead to very little warming, and that the connection of this minimal warming (or even significant warming) to the purported catastrophes is also minimal. The arguments on which the catastrophic claims are made are extremely weak –and commonly acknowledged as such.

In response to scientific projections of likely severe climate impacts of global average temperatures rise, the U.S. signed the1992 United Nations Convention on Climate Change. In 2016 the United States once again joined 197 countries in ratifying the Paris Climate Agreement, an enhancement to help the implementation of that Convention.

The claim that the United States ratified the Paris Climate Agreement is incorrect.  The United States never properly joined the accord.  It is a treaty that requires the advice and consent of the Senate. Instead, President Barack Obama chose to “adopt” it with an executive order.  The Senate never voted on the treaty.

Impacts from Emissions Already Observed in New York’s Climate

New York’s climate has already begun to change, gradually taking on the characteristics of the climate formerly found in locations south of New York. The need for the reduction of CO₂ emissions, including through the reduced emissions cap, budget adjustment, and establishment of the ECR, is clearly supported by numerous direct impacts that have been observed in New York State and presented in the 2011 New York State ClimAID assessment and the 2014 update to ClimAID.

The title of this section exposes a significant error in the understanding of the ClimAID assessments.  In particular, those assessments described observed climate trends but did not attempt to attribute how much of the observed trends were linked to GHG emissions, how much were caused by other anthropogenic effects such as land-use changes and the urban heat-island effect, and how much was caused by natural variability.  For example, the observed monthly data source for average temperature and precipitation was the United State Historical Climatology Network and page 21 of the 2011 ClimAID document states that “this data product is not specifically adjusted for urbanization”.  One of the sites used to describe climate trends was at New York City’s Central Park.  Clearly the urban heat-island has a significant effect on temperature at that location.  Therefore, the RIS presumption that the only cause of all the observed trends was GHG emissions over-estimates their role in observed climate change trends.

These include:

• Temperatures in New York State have risen during the twentieth century, with the greatest warming coming in recent decades – temperatures have risen on average 0.25°F per decade over the past century. This warming includes an increase in the number of extreme hot days (days at or above 90ºF) and a decrease in the number of cold days (days at or below 32ºF).

Because the effect of the urban heat-island is not considered these trends do not represent the trend due solely to the greenhouse effect.

• Sea level rise. Sea level in the coastal waters of New York State and up the Hudson River has been steadily rising over the twentieth century, chiefly as a result of thermal expansion of ocean waters, melting of land ice and local changes in the height of land relative to the height of the continental land mass. Tide-gauge observations in New York indicate that rates of relative sea level rise were significantly greater than the global mean, ranging from 0.9 to 1.5 inches per decade.

The fact that New York tidal gauge rates of relative sea level rise are greater than the global mean shows that local changes in the height of land relative to the height of the continental land mass are a significant factor of sea-level rise that no amount of change to the greenhouse effect will affect.

 Although the RIS purports to provide current information, consider an alternative assessment of current climate state based on data and not model speculation.  Ole Humlum a former Professor of Physical Geography at the University Centre in Svalbard, Norway, and Emeritus Professor of Physical Geography, University of Oslo, reported “The State of the Climate 2019,” that presents ten key facts in the Executive summary:

“1. According to the [surface] instrumental temperature record (since about 1850), 2019 was a very warm year, but cooler than 2016.

1. 1. 2. In 2019, the average global air temperature was affected by a moderate El Niño episode, interrupting a gradual global air temperature decrease following the strong 2015–16 El Niño.
      3. Since 1979, lower troposphere temperatures have increased over both land and oceans, but more so over land areas. The possible explanations include insolation, cloud cover and land use. {Caiazza note: if the greenhouse effect were the only cause of the temperature increase then there should be no difference over land vs over water.}
      4. The temperature variations recorded in the lowermost troposphere are generally reflected at higher altitudes too. In the stratosphere, however, a temperature ‘pause’ commenced in around 1995, 5–7 years before a similar temperature ‘pause’ began in the lower troposphere near the planet’s surface. The stratospheric temperature ‘pause’ has now persisted for about 25 years.
      5. The 2015–16 oceanographic El Niño was among the strongest since the beginning of the record in 1950. Considering the entire record, however, recent variations between El Niño and La Niña are not unusual.
      6. Since 2004, when detailed recording of ocean temperatures began, the global oceans above 1900 m depth have, on average, warmed somewhat. The strongest warming (between the surface and 200 m depth) mainly affects the oceans near the Equator, where the incoming solar radiation is at its maximum. In contrast, for the North Atlantic, net cooling at the surface has been pronounced since 2004.
      7. Data from tide gauges all over the world suggest an average global sea-level rise of 1–1.5 mm/year, while the satellite record suggests a rise of about 3.2 mm/year, or more. The noticeable difference in rate (a ratio of at least 1:2) between the two data sets still has no broadly accepted explanation.
      8. Since 1979, Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice extents have had opposite trends, decreasing and increasing, respectively. Superimposed on these overall trends, however, variations of shorter duration are also important in understanding year-to-year variations. In the Arctic, a 5.3-year periodic variation is important, while for the Antarctic a variation of about 4.5-years’ duration is seen. Both these variations reached their minima simultaneously in 2016, which explains the simultaneous minimum in global sea-ice extent. This particularly affected Antarctic sea-ice extent in 2016.
      9. Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent undergoes important local and regional variations from year to year. Since 1972, however, snow extent has been largely stable.
      10. Tropical storms and hurricanes have displayed large annual variations in accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) since 1970, but there has been no overall trend towards either lower or higher activity. The same applies for the number of continental hurricane landfalls in the USA, in a record going back to 1851.”

Future Impacts from Emissions Predicted for New York’s Climate

Predictions of future impacts associated with emissions in New York further support the need for a substantial reduction in the CO₂ emissions cap as well as the budget adjustment and ECR, as outlined in the proposed revisions to the Program. The 2011 New York State ClimAid assessment and 2014 update also examined how sea level rise, changes in precipitation patterns, and more frequent severe weather conditions will affect New York’s economy, environment, community life and human health. ClimAID used regionalized climate projections to develop adaptation recommendations and is a climate change preparedness resource for planners, policymakers, and the public. 

The future impacts assessment in the RIS relies on the 2011 New York State ClimAid assessment and 2014 update that examined how sea level rise, changes in precipitation patterns, and more frequent severe weather conditions will affect New York’s economy, environment, community life and human health.  There are three problems with those assessments: reliance on global climate model simulations, the use of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, and the use of a regional climate model.

 Climate sensitivity

Predictions of substantial global warming assume that the climate is very sensitive to an increase in GHG concentrations.  The RIS does not recognize that this is an active debate because of climate feedback in various models and that estimates in peer reviewed studies range from 0.8°C warming to almost 6.0°C warming by 2100.  Clearly such a wide range

of uncertainty means climate model temperature projections remain dubious, at best. In my opinion climate sensitivity estimates based on measured data are more likely to be correct than GCM projected estimates and those estimates are invariably on the lower end of the range.  The problem with the GCM estimates is cloud formation.  For example, “Given current uncertainties in representing convective precipitation microphysics and the current inability to find a clear observational constraint that favors one version of the authors’ model over the others, the implications of this ability to engineer climate sensitivity need to be considered when estimating the uncertainty in climate projections.”  To be clear, that means that modelers can conjure up whatever warming amount you want simply by tweaking how clouds form in response to the greenhouse effect.

 Emissions RCP 8.5

In order to make a projection for the future it is necessary to not only project the effect of changing GHG concentrations but also project how emissions will change.  The ClimAID assessment presents a range of possible projections but the worst-case impacts rely on a future emissions scenario that was not intended to be plausible. In short, the likelihood of the projected impacts that “make the case” for the proposed revisions are based on an unrealistic emissions scenario.  While it does make for the scary story needed to justify the proposed action, the fact is that it is inappropriate for use as justification for it.

 Regional Climate Model

One problem with a GCM is that in order to calculate the global climate a coarse horizontal grid is needed simply because of computational requirements.  In order to account for New York-specific impacts using a finer grid resolution ClimAID developed a regional climate model.  I believe they used a statistical technique to estimate regional climate impacts.  If that assumption is correct then their results are flawed.  In particular, the GCM gird resolution is so coarse that effects of the Great Lakes are not included.  However, “These techniques assume that the relationship between large scale climate variables (e.g. grid box rainfall and pressure) and the actual rainfall measured at one particular rain gauge will always be the same.”  Given that precipitation downwind of the Great Lakes is strongly influenced by lake-effect snow and rain, the large-scale precipitation estimates that do not include the Great Lakes means that this is clearly not the case.

Future Impacts from Emissions for New York State’s Resource Sectors

I did respond to all the problematic statements in this section.  As shown above there are serious concerns with the primary projections of temperature change.  The secondary projections of impacts to resource sectors is even more speculative especially because the alleged impacts require specific uncertain climatic outcomes.  I highlighted several issues that demonstrate a lack of nuanced understanding of potential climate change impacts.

In the section on Coastal Zones, the RIS states “Superstorm Sandy gained additional strength from unusually warm upper ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic”.  The RIS correctly does not attribute Superstorm Sandy to climate change.  I do not disagree with the claim that the storm could have gained additional strength from unusually warm temperatures.  I do want to point out that these claims point to the most likely long-term impact of anthropogenic climate change, i.e., impacts will be tweaks to the environment and not primary drivers of environmental change. 

In the same section the RIS claims that New York’s shoreline will be adversely affected by climate change: “The major contributor to sea level rise is thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and ice sheets.”  This section concerns Future Impacts from Emissions and therefore it is incompatible with the Impacts from Emissions Already Observed in New York’s Climate discussion of sea level.  As correctly noted in that section “Sea level in the coastal waters of New York State and up the Hudson River has been steadily rising over the twentieth century, chiefly as a result of thermal expansion of ocean waters, melting of land ice and local changes in the height of land relative to the height of the continental land mass. Tide-gauge observations in New York indicate that rates of relative sea level rise were significantly greater than the global mean, ranging from 0.9 to 1.5 inches per decade”.  Because New York tidal gauge rates of relative sea level rise are greater than the global mean shows that local changes in the height of land relative to the height of the continental land mass are a significant factor of sea-level rise that no amount of change to emissions will affect.

In the section on agriculture the RIS notes that “increased summer heat stress will negatively affect cool-season crops and livestock unless farmers take adaptive measures such as shifting to more heat-tolerant crop varieties and improving cooling capacity of livestock facilities”.  Misleadingly, the section then goes on to say “A loss of milk production efficiency from heat effects could result in the loss of hundreds of millions of dollars annually for New York’s dairy industry” based on the following:

“Dairy farmers will also be impacted since milk production is maximized under cooler conditions ranging from 41°F to 68°F. New York is the third largest producer of milk in the United States, behind California and Wisconsin, with 14.9 billion pounds of milk produced in 2017. During the unusually hot summer in 2005, many New York dairy herds reported declines in milk production of five to 15 pounds of milk per cow per day (an eight to 20 percent decrease).”

The average July temperature in Syracuse is 71, Madison WI is 75, and Sacramento, CA is 77, so two states that produce more milk than New York have higher average temperatures.  Additionally, the RIS mistakenly quotes a milk decrease from a weather event to support an alleged climate impact.

In the section on Air Quality and Public Health Benefits the RIS states:

“In addition to contributing to a 50% reduction in CO₂ from affected power plants in New York, it is estimated that the RGGI program provided $1.7 billion in avoided public health costs in New York by reducing associated air pollutants. Across the RGGI region, it is estimated that the RGGI program helped avoid 16,000 respiratory illnesses, up to 390 heart attacks, and 300 to 830 deaths.  At a more local level, according to a 2002 study, the expected health benefits of urban air pollution reductions from climate change mitigation strategies in the New York City area (assuming that they produce an approximately 10 percent reduction in PM₁₀ and ozone concentrations), would be to avoid approximately 9,400 premature deaths (including infant deaths), 680,000 asthma attacks, and 12 million restricted activity days.”

I showed in my companion post that the primary reason for the emission reductions was fuel switching from coal and residual oil to natural gas.  That means that the RGGI contribution to those reductions was on the order of 5% and not 50%.  That also means that the avoided health impacts were mostly due to fuel switching and not RGGI. 

A couple of points about health impacts in general and the referenced 2002 study and the potential impacts of a 10% reduction in PM₁₀ and ozone concentrations in particular.  Between 2000 and 2019 Northeast air quality trends show more improvement than a 10% reduction: PM₁₀  is down 39%, PM_2.5 is down 47%, ozone is down 24%, and SO2 is down 86%.  Until such time that DEC can reference a study that shows the actual health benefits associated with the observed air quality improvements, I am not confident that their air quality health claim is accurate.  Also note that future air quality impacts will be much smaller because the higher polluting coal and residual oil sources have already been reduced.  CO2 reductions from natural gas firing will not produce as many reductions in PM and Ozone levels and no change in SO2.

Components of the Proposed Program Revisions

One of the problems with New York’s energy policy is demonstrated by this statement: “The reduction in the CO₂ emissions cap to approximately align with current levels represents a critical step to combat the significant challenges presented by climate change and to advance sound energy policies that foster energy efficiency, a reduction in reliance on fossil fuels, and energy independence”.   In particular, New York State has not done a holistic analysis of the energy and environmental alternatives proposed to replace fossil fuels.  For example, this proposal is supposed to foster energy independence but in 2019 the United States was energy independent.  New York’s energy plan proposes to rely on renewable energy which will require battery energy storage.  Both technologies rely on rare elements which are not produced in sufficient quantities domestically to cover the requirements of the New York energy transition so we will become less energy independent.  Furthermore, the production of these rare elements is environmentally destructive so the State is merely leaking environmental impacts elsewhere.

Benefits from the Proposed Program Revisions

This section notes: “The most recent version of the New York State Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative-Funded Programs Status Report for the quarter ending December 31, 2018 estimates cumulative annual customer bill savings of $293 million.”

Unfortunately, in my companion post I showed that as a GHG emission reduction mechanism, New York’s RGGI investments fail to make investments that are less than the purported cost of the negative externalities for a ton of CO2 emitted today (the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC)).  In fact, the cost per ton removed is an order of magnitude larger than the Obama-era SCC value.  Therefore, New York’s investments are woefully cost ineffective which suggests that our resources should be invested in adaptation because we will not be able to afford the costs of mitigation.

There is a paragraph in this section that describes the Climate Act:

Most notably, as described above, the recently-enacted Climate Act establishes Statewide GHG emission reduction requirements and renewable and clean energy generation targets. In particular, ECL Section 75-0107, which was added by the Climate Act, requires a 40 percent reduction in Statewide GHG emissions from 1990 levels by 2030, and an 85 percent reduction from 1990 levels by 2050. Moreover, Public Service Law Section 66-p, which was also added by the Climate Act, establishes a target to generate 70 percent of the State’s electricity from renewable energy sources by 2030, and to generate 100 percent of the State’s electricity from carbon-free sources by 2040. The proposed revisions to the Program, including the additional reduction in the RGGI CO₂ emissions cap and the establishment of the ECR, further the objectives of the Climate Act. Finally, the Climate Act also includes multiple provisions that recognize that historically disadvantaged communities often suffer disproportionate and inequitable impacts from climate change. The proposed revisions to the Program to expand its applicability to include certain smaller sources, many of which are located in such communities, are consistent with these provisions of the Climate Act.

This section concludes with claimed benefits of implementing the proposed revisions:

Climate change is a global problem and effective action at the national and international level is necessary in order to stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations at acceptable levels. Notwithstanding this, particularly given the current federal Administration’s recent actions to slow or rescind various regulatory and other efforts to reduce GHGs nationally, action now at the State and regional level to reduce GHG emissions and to implement the revisions to the Program will benefit and reduce the risk of injury to New York and its citizens and residents from climate change. The risks of injury from a warming climate increase with the rate and magnitude of the warming, and in turn, the rate and magnitude of warming is primarily dependent upon the level of CO₂ emissions. In addition, by implementing the proposed revisions to the Program now, New York and the Participating States can:

• • • • Reduce the long-term costs of addressing climate change. By acting now, states can avoid the need for more disruptive measures later.
        • • As noted previously there is no quantitative estimate of the potential reduction of climate change costs that will accrue due to the proposed action.
      • Position the region ahead of competitors. Taking continued action to reduce the region’s carbon-intensity will create a competitive advantage relative to other parts of the country when additional action is taken at the national and international level.
        • • The German attempt to implement a similar but much less ambitious GHG emissions program led to massive price increases: “A German online site Stromreportwrites that since the year 2000 the average electricity price for private households has risen from 13.94 to 30.43 euro cents per kilowatt hour (2019)”.  If the cost of electricity is so much higher than elsewhere it will be a competitive dis-advantage.
      • Capture environmental co-benefits. Reducing power sector carbon emissions provides numerous environmental co-benefits, including reduced emissions of other pollutants associated with fossil-based electricity generation. Additionally, co-benefits will continue to be realized by allocating almost 100 percent of the CO₂allowances to the EE&CET account to be auctioned by NYSERDA and have the resulting proceeds utilized for the account’s purposes of furthering the GHG emission reduction objectives of the Program.
        • • Future environmental co-benefits will be much smaller than in the past simply because future reductions will be displacing natural gas rather than coal and oil. As shown above, NYSERDA’s investments are not cost-effective relative to the Social Cost of Carbon.
      • Drive new technology. By attaching tangible financial value to avoided carbon emissions, the proposed Program revisions provide additional market incentive for developing and deploying new technologies that can increase fuel efficiency, utilize non-carbon resources (including renewable technologies such as wind and solar power), and reduce or eliminate carbon emissions from combustion sources. In addition, to the extent that the auctioning of allowances will spur additional investments in clean energy technologies, the auctions drive the deployment of new technologies in the State.
        • I believe the cost of avoiding carbon emissions is far greater than the cost of RGGI on operations so this will have little effect on new technology.
      • Promote improved supply-side and demand-side efficiency. The proposed Program revisions create a direct incentive to reduce the fossil fuel inputs required to produce electricity through more efficient generating technologies. This is consistent with the Climate Act’s target to obtain 100 percent of the State’s electricity from carbon-free sources by 2040.
        • • The NYSERDA investments in demand-side efficiency have provided tangible benefits. If DEC wants to claim supply-side efficiency gains then they should provide examples.
      • Improve the region’s energy security and reduce its exposure to higher energy prices. By creating a market incentive for low-carbon and non-carbon electricity technologies and by promoting increased supply-side and demand-side efficiency, the proposed Program revisions reduce the Northeast’s long-term exposure to high fossil fuel energy prices. Efficiency improvements and advances in new energy technology fostered by the proposed Program revisions can help buffer the region from the considerable economic risks associated with continued dependence on these fuels.
        • • If New York truly wants to reduce exposure to higher energy prices then they should embrace natural gas development which has proven to be the leading cause in decreased prices. In spite of New York’s irrational war on natural gas fracking, that technology has been primarily responsible for the observed emission reductions and associated health benefits in the past decade.
      • Stimulate economic development. The proposed Program revisions provide a positive stimulus for economic growth in the region by creating incentives for new technologies that could be developed in-region, promoting a more efficient and cleaner electricity generating sector, prompting other activities through its offsets program and improving efficiency. NYSERDA’s investment of proceeds from the auctioning of allowances provides further economic benefits.
        • • The broken window fallacy negates this claim. In the broken window fallacy – money spent on RGGI allowances, for example, is “money that cannot be spent on food, clothing, health care, or other industries. The stimulus felt in one sector of the economy comes at a direct – but hidden – cost to other sectors”.

Conclusion

I recently listened to the June 24 meeting of the New York Climate Action Council Policy in which New York’s climate leaders repeatedly expounded on the importance of science driving New York policy.  However, as the implementation of this regulation shows, it is more about rhetoric than science.  Science-driven policy should consider all possibilities, make a case for the preferred alternative, and not neglect inconvenient aspects of the proposal.  In this instance the RIS claims over-whelming evidence and dismisses legitimate issues.  I showed in the companion post that no case was made for the proposed revision to the regulation to include smaller sources.  The most egregious problem is that New York has never quantified the potential effect of any of their GHG emission reduction regulations.  The suggestion that changing New York’s contributions to global warming due to GHG emissions, even if you accept the consensus science, will have any measurable effect on the list of alleged problems is clearly not likely.  At this time of unprecedented budgetary crisis, the RIS does not make a case to support these revisions and it is entirely appropriate to ask why this regulation is necessary.

[2] Esper, J., R.J.S. Wilson,  D.C. Frank, A. Moberg, H. Wanner, & J. Luterbacher.  2005.  “Climate: past ranges and future changes”.  Quaternary Science Reviews 24: 2164-2166.

[1] This was the total for 2015 NYS emissions in NYSERDA Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2015. Subsequent editions have lowered the most recent total so this is a conservative value for impacts.