My Affordability Presentation at Stop Energy Sprawl Connect Across the Lines Conference

On August 8, 2026 I gave an affordability presentation at the Stop Energy Sprawl Conference “Connect Across the Lines”.  This post documents my presentation as promised to the attendees. Although it just provides bullet points with links others may find it useful as a summary of my Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) affordability concerns.

I am convinced that implementation of the Climate Act net-zero mandates will do more harm than good if the future electric system relies only on wind, solar, and energy storage because of reliability risks, unacceptable costs, and adverse environmental impacts.  The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect the position of any of my previous employers or any other organization I have been associated with, these comments are mine alone. 

Background

Stop Energy Sprawl is a coalition of  community groups, municipalities, and elected officials from localities in New York State targeted by land-wasting, large-scale wind and solar projects located far from where that energy is needed. This year’s conference, aims to inform on the affordability, legality, feasibility, and community impacts of New York’s energy policies. 

The post reproduces the slides with references included.  I acknowledge the use of Perplexity AI to find and summarize my articles documenting this presentation.  I used Perplexity AI to prepare a list of links to my articles related to specific topics that I linked to my web site. Those links are labeled as (Perplexity AI Summary).

Introduction

Affordability Presentation Topics

  • Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (CLCPA or Climate Act) energy transition
  • “Cheap” renewables myth
  • Affordability Messaging in State plans
  • Ratepayer Impacts per Kris Martin

Climate Act Premise

Source: Climate Act Scoping Plan

  •  Public Service Law § 66-p
    • Public Service Law 66-p (Perplexity AI Summary) Implications
    • Section 66-p (4) includes an affordability safety valve if “there is a significant increase in arrears or service disconnections that the commission determines is related to the program”.
    • PSC may “temporarily suspend or modify the obligations” of the CLCPA after conducting a hearing
    • Two petitions requested that the PSC address this
    • On 1/28/2026 the PSC asked for comments
    • Comment deadline was the end of April
    • No action taken yet
  • There is No Clear CLCPA Affordability Limit –  No references needed
    • CLCPA does not define acceptable consumer cost impacts
    • Without a clear affordability boundary, there is no real cost constraint.
    • That makes affordability a political slogan instead of a measurable requirement.

Source: Adapted from figure by Charles Rotter at Watts Up With That

  • But What About Cheap Renewables? (Perplexity AI Summary)
    • Energy storage
    • Transmission Upgrades
    • Backup generation
    • Grid ancillary support
    • Dispatchable, firm generating resources

These issues are addressed in a subsequent presentation.

  • Cheap Renewables – Only Half the Story
    • The “cheap renewables claim usually refers to low project-level Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), not total system cost.
    • LCOE measures the cost of producing electricity when available, not the cost of running a reliable grid.
    • Consumers pay for a full electric system, not just low-cost megawatt-hours.
    • The grid must work on the worst day of the year – high load low, renewables
    • Cheap electricity is not the same as dependable electricity.

Source: NYISO 2025-2044 System and Resource Outlook Appendix J: Renewable Generation Pockets

  • Hidden Cost – Transmission (Perplexity AI Summary)
    • Large-scale renewable development requires major transmission upgrades to move power from Upstate to New York City and Long Island
    • Simple project-level cost claim do not include interconnection and grid reinforcement costs
    • Consumers ultimately pay for wires, substations, and congestion relief through rates.
  • Hidden Cost – Reliability Backup (Perplexity AI Summary)
    • A weather-dependent grid still needs firm resources for cold, snowy, dark, and low-wind periods.
    • Short-duration batteries can help with ramps and short peaks, but not long-duration system stress.
    • Long-duration periods require special resources that are not commercially available at this time so costs are unknown.  This is the Dispatchable Emissions Free Resource (DEFR) technology
  • Hidden Cost: Electrification (Perplexity AI Summary)
    • Affordability impacts extend beyond utility bills to building conversions, appliance replacement, and vehicle transition costs.
    • Households face upfront capital costs even before any promised fuel savings appear.
    • Low- and middle-income customers are least able to absorb these transition costs.
    • A true affordability review should count economy-wide household energy burdens, not just electric rates.

Another Way to Look at “Cheap” Myth

  • Weather-dependent electric grid needs four systems for reliable power per Scott Grout
    • Base wind and solar fleet
    • Battery system for diurnal and short-term backup
    • Additional wind and solar to power the battery systems
    • Dispatchable firm resources during the doldrums
  • Each system makes for a larger, more complex, and more expensive electric grid.

Source: Healthy Skeptic “Energy Subsidies”

If renewables are so cheap why do they need subsidies?

  • Kevin Roche argues that the total taxpayer subsidy per energy produced shows that renewable wind and solar require subsidies

Source of Graph: Scoping Plan Chapter 10: Benefits of the Plan

Scoping Plan Affordability

State Energy Plan Affordability

  • State Energy Plan Affordability (Perplexity AI Summary)
    • The energy affordability analysis in the Energy Plan shows that “the use of new, efficient equipment and electrification can cut energy spending by $100 to over $300 every month for many New York households, across energy costs for transportation and heating and utility bills.”

Source: NYS Energy Planning Board Meeting Presentation Slide 40

  • State Energy Plan Affordability Claim

I developed this figure to summarize the changes needed to electrify households

Source: NYS Energy Planning Board Meeting Presentation Slide 43

Source: NYS Energy Planning Board Meeting Presentation Slide 43

  • Bottom Line Climate Act Household Cost
    • Difference between Conventional and High Efficient is cost of CLCPA
    • $1,968 minus $1,374 or $594 per month (43%)

Feasibility Warnings

  • State Agencies Feasibility Warnings and Affordability (Perplexity AI Summary)
    • State reviews have acknowledged inflation, supply chain problems, permitting barriers, siting opposition, and interconnection delays.
    • The State Energy Plan indicates current deployment trajectories are not sufficient to meet statutory ambitions.
    • Feasibility problems increase affordability risk because delay almost always increases cost.

Direct Ratepayer Costs

Ratepayer Costs – What is Included

  • Renewable projects are supported through Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) and Offshore wind Renewable Energy Credits (ORECs) purchased by NYSERDA and passed through to utilities.
  • Zero Emission Credits (ZECs) support nuclear plants undermined by renewable subsidies
  • Utilities recover those costs from customers through electric bills.
  • Climate Act charges also include related items such as EV incentives and transmission upgrades that are buried in utility bills.
  • Commercial and industrial customers face even higher Climate Act bill percentages than residential customers.

Source: NYS DPS Second CLCPA Informational Report on Overall Implementation of the CLCPA

  • Current Bill Impacts Look Smaller Than They Really Are
    • The PSC says Climate Act costs are still a small portion of the typical residential bill.
    • That is true only because the forecasts include contracted Tier 1 projects awarded through 2024, not the much larger future buildout needed to meet the law’s targets.
    • In other words, today’s bill impacts reflect only part of the program cost.
    • The larger REC and OREC obligations are still ahead.
  • Charges Reflect an Incomplete Buildout
    • Kris Martin notes that the 2029 forecast includes existing and already-contracted capacity, but not the additional capacity still needed for the 2030 renewable mandate.
    • Those omitted resources represent considerable added cost.
    • If Climate Act costs remain “modest,” that is evidence that buildout is falling short, not that the transition is cheap.
    • Ratepayers will eventually be asked to fund the missing capacity if the mandates stay in place
  • REC Costs Could Rise Sharply
    • At roughly similar REC pricing, wind and solar generation growth from about 6.5 million MWh in 2024 to more than 63 million MWh in 2030 would raise REC costs from about $220.9 million to above $2.1 billion.
  • Affordability Key Findings
    • Climate Act “affordability” is a political slogan
    • “Cheap” renewables is a myth
    • Affordability messaging in state plans is misleading at best
    • Ratepayer impacts are significant and will get worse
  • Affordability Recommendations
    • Define affordable
    • Do not mandate technology
    • Do not mandate a schedule
    • Do not try to go to zero – lower is good enough
    • NYS GHG emissions are less than one half of one percent of global emissions
    • Global emissions have been increasing more than one half of one per cent per year for decades

Conclusion

New York should replace inflexible Climate Act mandates with an affordability-first, technology-neutral strategy that delivers practical emissions reductions without imposing costs on ratepayers that are disproportionate to the State’s limited influence on global emissions

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Author: rogercaiazza

I am a meteorologist (BS and MS degrees), was certified as a consulting meteorologist and have worked in the air quality industry for over 40 years. I author two blogs. Environmental staff in any industry have to be pragmatic balancing risks and benefits and (https://pragmaticenvironmentalistofnewyork.blog/) reflects that outlook. The second blog addresses the New York State Reforming the Energy Vision initiative (https://reformingtheenergyvisioninconvenienttruths.wordpress.com). Any of my comments on the web or posts on my blogs are my opinion only. In no way do they reflect the position of any of my past employers or any company I was associated with.

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