Author: rogercaiazza

I am a meteorologist (BS and MS degrees), was certified as a consulting meteorologist and have worked in the air quality industry for over 40 years. I author two blogs. Environmental staff in any industry have to be pragmatic balancing risks and benefits and (https://pragmaticenvironmentalistofnewyork.blog/) reflects that outlook. The second blog addresses the New York State Reforming the Energy Vision initiative (https://reformingtheenergyvisioninconvenienttruths.wordpress.com). Any of my comments on the web or posts on my blogs are my opinion only. In no way do they reflect the position of any of my past employers or any company I was associated with.

EPA’s “Insurance Policy” Against Trump

I saw this article earlier this week and think it raises an important issue  EPA Advisor: Agency Is Funneling Billions To Climate Cult Groups As “Insurance Policy” Against Trump.  This post links to work by Project Veritas who “investigates and exposes corruption, dishonesty, waste, fraud, and other misconduct in both public and private institutions to achieve a more ethical and transparent society”.  On occasion they tape an interview with someone with inside knowledge.  This post reproduces their article describing a chat with Brent Efron, a special advisor implementing Biden’s climate agenda.  It ticks most of the boxes of the Project Veritas mission statement. 

I am convinced that implementation of the New York Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) net-zero mandates will do more harm than good if the electric system transition relies on wind, solar, and energy storage because of impacts on reliability, affordability, and the environment.  I have followed the Climate Act since it was first proposed, submitted comments on the Climate Act implementation plan, and have written over 480 articles about New York’s net-zero transition.  The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect the position of any of my previous employers or any other organization I have been associated with, these comments are mine alone.

Overview

The Climate Act established a New York “Net Zero” target (85% reduction in GHG emissions and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050.  It includes an interim 2030 reduction target of a 40% GHG reduction by 2030. Two targets address the electric sector: 70% of the electricity must come from renewable energy by 2030 and all electricity must be generated by “zero-emissions” resources by 2040. The Climate Action Council (CAC) was responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlined how to “achieve the State’s bold clean energy and climate agenda.” The Integration Analysis prepared by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and its consultants quantified the impact of the electrification strategies.  That material was used to develop the Draft Scoping Plan outline of strategies.  After a year-long review, the Scoping Plan was finalized at the end of 2022.  Since then, the State has been trying to implement the Scoping Plan recommendations through regulations, proceedings, and legislation. 

One of the mostly unremarked aspects of net-zero transition legislation is that many laws incorporate  Progressive “Green New Deal” components to achieve other social aims like job creation, economic growth, and climate justice.  They are more than just emission reduction programs.  For example, New York’s Climate Act goes to great lengths to address environmental justice (EJ) issues.  The law mandates that at least 35% of the benefits of spending must be directed to disadvantaged communities.  The Climate Justice Working Group works “to ensure that while we move the State toward a carbon neutral economy, all New Yorkers will reap the economic and environmental benefits of our nation-leading transition.”

Project Veritas Article – The following is a copy of the article

It’s a turbulent time at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), according to a current staffer, with morale at an all-time low. As President-Elect Trump readies to take office, gloomy EPA employees are scrambling to distribute funding for their favored climate change initiatives. Brent Efron, a special advisor implementing Biden’s climate agenda, told Project Veritas the agency is frantically shoveling billions in grants to nonprofits, making sure that the Biden administration’s climate projects stay afloat — no matter who’s in charge.

“Now it’s how to get the money out as fast as possible before they [Trump Administration] come in … it’s like we’re on the Titanic and we’re throwing gold bars off the edge.” – Brent Efron, EPA Advisor

Efron spoke to a Project Veritas investigative journalist about his role in doling out over $100 billion in grants to nonprofits under Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which he dubs “Biden’s climate law.” The EPA’s website describes these grants as part of their mission to advance “environmental and climate justice.”

Efron even admits that the EPA is scrambling to push money out the door for projects originally designed for a Kamala Harris presidency.

“The thing that we haven’t funded yet are [sic] the local nonprofit program that was going to be an inter-Kamala Harris administration program… so now we’re getting it [funding] out as quick as possible. It’s like two billion at this point, we’ve got most of it out – like 90%.”

So committed are these staffers, Efron confesses, that they plan to work right up until the final moments on inauguration day, rushing to ensure that every possible tax-payer dollar is disbursed before a Republican administration can turn off the spigot.

“It’s until the Trump people come in and tell us we can no longer give out money. That’s at the very earliest the 20th [January 2025]. But it’s probably a little bit after because they have to get in the building and tell people what to do.”

Efron predicts that the Trump administration will swiftly issue an order to block all grants, with Congress potentially trying to claw back the EPA’s funding. Anticipating this, he reveals that the EPA has been working to funnel money to aligned nonprofits capable of implementing climate change policies at the local level, viewing it as an “insurance policy” against the upcoming Trump presidency.

“We gave them [nonprofits] the money because… it was an insurance policy against Trump winning. Because they aren’t [a government agency], they’re safer from Republicans taking the money away.”

Efron openly admits how the EPA uses nonprofits as a political buffer against Republican administrations—and reveals how he could later reap personal rewards with a cushy job at one of the nonprofits he helped fund during his tenure.

“Over the last year we’ve given out $50 billion dollars for climate things…so to go work for one of these places would be really cool.”

Indeed, the EPA’s website lists several pass-through nonprofits, each awarded between $50 million and $100 million, with the responsibility of distributing subgrants to other nonprofits—ensuring that Biden’s climate agenda keeps rolling, even after his presidency ends.

Efron and his colleagues are working feverishly until the shakeup.

“We’re throwing gold bars off the Titanic. We’re getting the money out.”

The Project Veritas article notes that

Utah Senator Mike Lee responded to Project Veritas’ investigation on X stating, “The U.S. government is actively working to undermine the American people. We’ve empowered Washington to the point that it’s become dangerous and destructive. It’s too big, too expensive, and too powerful. We must return to constitutional government.”

Commentary

The University of California Center for Climate Justice notes that Climate Justice recognizes “the disproportionate impacts of climate change on low-income communities and communities of color around the world, the people and places least responsible for the problem” and “seeks solutions that address the root causes of climate change and in doing so, simultaneously address a broad range of social, racial, and environmental injustices.”  There is no question that disadvantaged communities have suffered and continue to suffer disproportionate environmental impacts, but it is important to understand what causes the harm, and balance expectations and potential solutions. 

In addition to the obvious dishonesty, waste, fraud, and other misconduct evident in these revelations,

the problem is that the non-profits targeted for the EPA “insurance” funds have no reason to balance expectations and potential solutions.  They will never be satisfied because that ends the funding stream.  It also gives politicians and regulators a dependable demographic to support ever more stringent regulations.  I am also concerned that “Scrambling to push money out the door” is an invitation for poor oversight and management.   

For a pragmatist like me who was involved in environmental permitting before retirement, the deference given to the EJ activists is bewildering.  New York agencies bend over backwards to appease these activists so much so that I wonder how many projects can be permitted because these activists demand zero impacts to disadvantaged communities.  No mind that facilities meet all the emissions requirements and do not contribute to violations of ambient standards, if they emit anything that is unacceptable.  It has also been a source of wonder that myriad EJ organizations manage to fund slickly produced analyses that support their narratives.  I knew that EPA funding was part of their funding streams but was unaware of the magnitude of Federal largesse until reading the Project Veritas article.

Finally, I cannot help but wonder how many of the gold bars thrown off the allegorical sinking ship are aimed at New York’s Climate Act programs.  The Hochul Administration still has not acknowledged how much implementation will cost claiming that they need to know how much money will come from the Federal government.  This uncertainty may explain the delay of the release of pending regulations.

Keith Schue: New York Needs Nuclear

Keith Schue alerted me to his piece for the Empire Report titled New York Needs Nuclear, a Balanced Approach to Clean Energy.  I am always happy to publish pragmatic discussions of New York energy policy so I am re-publishing his article in this post.

Keith Schue is an electrical engineer and technical adviser on energy policy. Schue has been engaged in New York energy policy since 2010 and currently volunteers as a technical advisor for several organizations, including New York Energy & Climate Advocates. Before moving to New York, he was employed with the Florida chapter of The Nature Conservancy.  He recently co-authored a commentary in the Albany Times Union with climate scientist James Hansen, making a persuasive case for using nuclear in the future. 

Overview

The Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) established a New York “Net Zero” target (85% reduction in GHG emissions and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050.  It includes an interim 2030 GHG reduction target of 40%. Two targets address the electric sector: 70% of the electricity must come from renewable energy by 2030 and a requirement that all electricity generated be “zero-emissions” resources by 2040. The Climate Action Council (CAC) was responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlined how to “achieve the State’s bold clean energy and climate agenda.” The Integration Analysis prepared by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and its consultants quantifies the impact of the electrification strategies.  That material was used to develop the Draft Scoping Plan outline of strategies.  After a year-long review, the Scoping Plan was finalized at the end of 2022.  Since then, the State has been trying to implement the Scoping Plan recommendations through regulations, proceedings, and legislation. 

I recently published Schue’s summary of draft documents that covered three of these implementation initiatives.  In this article he references the New York Power Authority (NYPA) Draft Renewables Plan.  He noted that the Build Public Renewables Act adopted last year now forces NYPA to try installing solar, wind, and batteries even faster than the private sector is already doing with subsidies.  He suggested that comments on the NYPA renewables plan should say:

Achieving carbon-free electricity requires firm reliable power. Therefore, throwing more public money and resources at intermittent generation not only jeopardizes reliability and affordability, but also ensures that NY will remain dependent on fossil fuels. Instead of focusing on solar panels and wind turbines that the private sector can install on its own, NYPA should do what it has historically done best by working on reliable public projects for the common good, like nuclear energy, hydropower, and utility infrastructure.

In the following section I present Schue’s article that first appeared in Empire Report in its entirety.

New York Needs Nuclear, a Balanced Approach to Clean Energy

Global warming is real, as is the urgency for action to address it. However, New York will only make good on its promise of tackling the climate crisis if it pursues solutions that work in the real world.

Unfortunately, the strategic plan recently drafted by the New York Power Authority (NYPA) falls short of what’s needed—not because it fails to install enough solar panels, wind turbines and batteries, but because that is all it proposes to do.

For decades, NYPA has spearheaded vital energy projects that serve the public good. From the construction of large hydroelectric plants to positioning New York as a leader in nuclear power, the authority has consistently delivered electricity that is reliable, clean, and affordable to communities and business upstate. Indeed, NYPA is the reason why New Yorks’ upstate grid is already 90% carbon-free.

Yet, instead of building upon that impressive legacy, the plan currently proposed threatens grid stability by marginalizing firm resources and focusing on those that are fragile, intermittent, and incredibly land-intensive. It is an approach that jeopardizes greenhouse gas reduction, perpetuating dependence on fossil fuels while making electricity less reliable and more expensive.

It is also an approach that reflects outdated politics of the past.

Today, there is overwhelming consensus among engineers, industry leaders, the business community, and labor unions that a diverse mix of resources—including advanced nuclear power—will be essential to decarbonize while providing ample energy for a growing economy and workforce. Even Governor Hochul emphasized this reality at her recent Future Energy Economy Summit in Syracuse. Micron’s semiconductor manufacturing operations alone are expected to surpass the electricity demand of Vermont and New Hampshire combined. However, in addition to accommodating unprecedented growth, a zero-emission grid must be robust. Dispatchable Emission-Free Resources (DEFRs) capable of serving demand when renewables cannot are essential.  Moreover, DEFRs that operate a lot more than 2% of the time will be needed in the real world to avoid retaining large amounts of fossil fuel capacity. Batteries and hydrogen simply won’t suffice.

Rather than focusing on sprawling intermittent sources that cannot go the distance, the state should pursue compact solutions that will. NYPA should leverage its technical and financial expertise to support the Governor’s vision of integrating flexible advanced nuclear into New York’s grid. There are communities eager to embrace it. Where possible, responsible hydropower expansion can also be explored, like collaborating with the Green Island Power Authority to increase generation capacity on the Hudson River. Infrastructure improvements should be pursued as well, but in a manner that respects communities.

One thing is certain: New York’s energy strategy must change. Communities are under attack from the Office of Renewable Energy Siting, businesses are questioning whether they can survive in the state, industry is asking whether there will be energy to expand, and skilled labor is wondering if the only jobs left for them will be unpacking solar panels from China.

A successful strategy will require compromise. With a balanced expansion of solar, wind, and firm nuclear power, the state can meet its energy goals. However, NYPA’s leadership in needed more than ever to forge pragmatic solutions that work. The future of New York hinges on its ability to adapt and champion a diverse, reliable, and sustainable energy portfolio. NYPA should be a guiding force in that critical transition.

Commentary

I was happy to re-publish Keith’s article because I agree with him that nuclear power is necessary and that NYPA should be considering it along with solar and wind in the Draft Renewables Plan.  I have one minor point of emphasis difference because I think balanced expansion with wind and solar development is a dead end.  I have come to the conclusion that reliance on those resources will do more harm than good because of reliability and affordability risks.  Importantly, consider that the State agencies responsible for a reliable energy system agree that a wind, solar, and energy storage system needs a new dispatchable emissions free resource (DEFR) to account for low resource availability during periods of extended light wind and cloudiness.  At some point, New York must do a feasibility analysis to determine which DEFR technologies should be used in New York.  I believe that analysis will find that the only viable candidate for DEFR is nuclear power.  That means that a wind and solar energy system must include nuclear power as the DEFR backup technology.  However, economics suggest nuclear resources should be used as much as possible instead of as a backup. Using nuclear as the backbone of the electric system eliminates the need for the massive wind, solar and energy development proposed and addresses my concerns about reliability and affordability.

September New York Dunkelflaute or Wind Lull

I have been meaning to write this article for several months.  In September Parker Gallant noted that industrial wind turbines (IWT) in Ontario “show up at the party, almost always, after everyone has left” in a post that described poor performance of the province’s wind turbines over a five day period in September.  I looked at New York data, found that wind data was also poor in the state at the same time, and planned to do a post.  Other issues came up but a recent Dunkelflaute wind lull in Germany has spurred me to complete the post.  Better late than never, here it is. 

I have followed the Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) since it was first proposed, submitted comments on the Climate Act implementation plan, and have written over 470 articles about New York’s net-zero transition.  The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect the position of any of my previous employers or any other organization I have been associated with, these comments are mine alone.

Overview

The Climate Act established a New York “Net Zero” target (85% reduction in GHG emissions and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050.  It includes an interim 2030 reduction target of a 40% GHG reduction by 2030. Two targets address the electric sector: 70% of the electricity must come from renewable energy by 2030 and all electricity must be generated by “zero-emissions” resources by 2040. The Climate Action Council (CAC) was responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlined how to “achieve the State’s bold clean energy and climate agenda.” The Integration Analysis prepared by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and its consultants quantified the impact of the electrification strategies.  That material was used to develop the Draft Scoping Plan outline of strategies.  After a year-long review, the Scoping Plan was finalized at the end of 2022.  Since then, the State has been trying to implement the Scoping Plan recommendations through regulations, proceedings, and legislation.  Unfortunately implementation efforts to date have short-changed addressing issues that have been identified.

Dunkelflaute

The German description of a wind and solar resource lull is Dunkelflaute.  Iowa Climate Science Education explains that the term refers to “dark doldrums”.  A large high pressure system has recently affected wind and solar resources in Europe.  Daniel Wetzel notes that:

At 5 p.m. on Wednesday, solar power was only supplying a single megawatt hour. The 1602 offshore wind turbines in the North and Baltic Seas – each one the size of the Eiffel Tower – were at a complete standstill. Zero electricity production.

Earlier in the week the British electric system faced a similar situation.

Ontario Dunkelflaute

Parker Gallant’s article provided a great example:

Looking at the following IESO Power data chart from September 13th to late in the day on September 18th it is evident Ontario Demand (solid green line) clearly demonstrates the daily swings in Ontario demand during those “summery” days. It is evident, demand fluctuates by almost 6,000 MW from the middle of the night to later in the day!  Those swings in demand are even higher when you examine the data in respect to “market demand” (blue line) which reflects our imports and exports via our intertie connections with our neighbours.

From the top of the chart:  the tiny “red” represents biofuel generation and “yellow” represents generation supplied by solar panels. The “green” tells us what those industrial wind turbines are generating hourly! The “dark blue” is generation from our natural gas plants and the “light blue” is power being supplied by our hydro generation stations some of which are classified as “baseload”! The solid unwavering “orange” represents what our baseload nuclear plants provide us with!

He describes the charts:

Looking at the six days illustrated, the highest peak demand occurred September 16th reaching 21,547 MW at Hour 17 (hour ending at 5 PM) and the lowest peak demand was September 14th reaching 19,288 MW at Hour 17! Interestingly Hour 17 was the peak hour on all six days.

As the Supply chart clearly demonstrates those natural gas plants (dark blue) fluctuated widely as needed to ensure we were able to avoid blackouts each and every day by either ramping up or ramping down as required! Hydro generation also played a role by also modestly, ramping up or down in addition to supplying some of the baseload.

Gallant went on to describe how the IWT performed:

Well, the high for generation by those IWT occurred at Hour 24 (ending at midnight) September 14th when they generated 2,199 MWh or 44.8% of their capacity and the low generation occurred at Hour 11 on September 13th when they only managed to generate 22 MWh or 0.5% of their capacity. Interestingly at Hour 24 on September 14th IESO reported our net-exports were 2,956 MWh at the low price of $24.07/MWh so we apparently didn’t need that power and were forced to sell it off for a cheap price! Also IWT over the six days hit their peak generation at Hours 23, 24 or Hour 1 when peak demand is always near its lowest for each and every day! Coincidently their low generation over the same  6 days occurred at either Hours 10 or 11 when demand is accelerating!

New York Wind Data

I attempted to access the Ontario IESO generation data for the period but could not find it.  On the other hand, the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) provides access to their data.  New York fuel-mix load available at the NYISO Real-Time Dashboard where there is a link to historical data.

The Real-Time Fuel Mix panel includes links to current and historical five-minute generation (MW) for energy generated in New York State.  I processed that data to calculate hourly averages.  The generator types include “Hydro” that includes pumped storage hydro; “Wind”, mostly land-based wind but does include 136 MW of offshore wind; “Other Renewables” that covers solar energy (394 MW of “front-of-the-meter solar”), energy storage resources (63 MW), methane, refuse, or wood; “Other Fossil Fuels” is oil; “Nuclear”; “Natural Gas”; and “Dual Fuel” which are units that burn both natural gas and oil. As an aside, oil capability is maintained as a reliability measure.

The following graph shows the hourly fuel type generation throughout the period.  Note that there are similarities with the Ontario data.  New York does not have as much nuclear, but both control areas use it as solid, unwavering baseload power. New York hydro has more diurnal variation because there are pumped storage hydro facilities used for load following.  In both control areas natural gas is relied on to provide power when needed.  New York has dual-fuel units that probably burned natural gas during this period.

The focus of this article is the Dunkelflaute, so the wind data are of most interest.  The following figure lists the wind data only.  Because I could not combine data sets, we can only consider a qualitative comparison between New York and Ontario.  The wind output is the similar – low when needed most and picking up when demand drops.

Because I have access to the actual data, I can summarize just how bad the wind was over this 192-hour period.  New York has 2,454 MW of wind capacity.  The maximum wind capacity occurred on 19 September at hour 21 when 502 MW of wind power was generated, an unimpressive 20.5% of the total capacity.  The minimum wind capacity occurred on 13 September at hour 12 when 0.2 MW of wind power was generated.  I summarized the hourly totals by category in Table 1.  There were 96 hours representing half the period when the capacity of all the wind generation in New York was less than 5%.  All but one of the hours had a capacity factor of less than 20%.

Table 1: Categorial Hourly Totals for New York State Wind Power from 12 September 2024 hour 0000 to 19 September 2024 hour 2300

The NYISO Operations Report for September 2024 Wind Performance Figure shows daily wind production over the entire month.  Those data show that the daily capacity factor was less than 10% from 9/10/24 to 9/20/24. 

Discussion

In my opinion, climate scientists tend to over-emphasize potential global warming drivers when explaining weather observations.  For example, I saw a news segment where a climate scientist claimed that warmer temperatures associated with global warming increased the rainfall associated with Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina by 15 to 20% exacerbating the flooding.  Baloney, I say.  The supposed rationale is that warmer weather increases the amount of moisture that the atmosphere can hold and climate change models are used provide numbers for these attribution statements.  I addressed the Helene hype claims earlier.  Given that there was a storm in 1916 that produced higher flood levels I don’t think that moisture content was the primary driver for the flood.  Instead, I believe that an unusual weather pattern caused the storm to stall over the region.  Even if there was some greater water capacity effect, it was small relative to the weather pattern impact.

My whole diatribe was a lead-in to make a point about weather patterns and the observed data in September 2024.  Light winds over 11 days are only possible if there is a large, slow-moving high-pressure system.  I have never seen any observational analyses claiming that they are trends in this kind of weather pattern.

More importantly, there are implications of these observations relative to the Climate Act transition to an electric system that relies on wind, solar, and energy storage capacity.  The fact that all of the New York wind generation only produced 0.2 MW during one hour must mean that the stagnant high pressure system was at least as big as New York including the offshore wind facility south of Long Island. It is hard to conclusively pick out the Ontario wind generation during the worst hour but it appears that there is very little wind generation at that time.  I maintain that to fully understand the geographical implications that a detailed analysis of meteorological data and expected wind and solar generation for New York and all the adjoining electric system control areas is necessary.  Lastly, I believe that the weather pattern that caused this wind lull could occur at any time of the year.  It may be more likely during certain times of the year but there is no reason that similar conditions could occur anytime.  This exacerbates the problem because the high-pressure systems that cause light winds often are accompanied by the most extreme temperatures which are when the observed peak loads occur.

My primary reliability concern is the challenge of providing electric energy during these periods of extended low wind and solar resource availability.  This period perfectly exemplifies this kind of extended wind lull period.  To address this problem the organizations responsible for New York State electric system reliability agree that a new Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resource (DEFR) is need as described here.  In addition to the geographical considerations noted above, planning for must evaluate as long a period as possible.  That work must consider when wind and solar can charge energy storage capacity and when short-term energy storage must be discharged to meet system requirements.  The challenge of that analysis is obvious when looking at these wind output graphs.

Conclusion

The Dunkelflaute wind lull phenomenon occurs worldwide.  The comparison of Ontario and New York data shows that these conditions can cover both jurisdictions.  The New York data show the severity of the wind lull.  It is essential that electric system planners consider the impacts of the Dunkelflaute.  I believe that New York is addressing this issue.  However, I will only feel comfortable that they have considered the worst-case situation when they assess a longer period of data covering adjacent electric system control areas.

Unfortunately, clean energy advocates continue to dismiss the extent of the problem.  Even worse, some do not acknowledge that wind, solar, and energy storage cannot be relied on during those periods and that when the power is needed the most it is most likely to be in a resource lull.  These advocates are simply wrong and should be ignored.

Attention New Visitors

The articles on this blog reflect my background as an environmental and energy analyst in the electric utility business.  Writing on behalf of industry requires documentation and backup for anything submitted as part of a regulatory proceeding.  Articles here provide that information so that readers have enough information to decide whether what I say is and is not true. .  However, it also means the posts can be dense, long, and include technical jargon. 

If you are interested in the material but do not want to wade everything in the posts, there is an alternative.  I prepare a fortnightly summary of posts that describes my recent posts with minimal technical jargon and includes links if you want to read the entire post.

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NYCP – Get Charged Up for the New York State Energy Plan

On September 9, 2024 the Hochul Administration initiated the development of the State Energy Plan announcing the release of a draft scope of the plan.  On November 15 New Yorkers for Clean Power (NYCP) sponsored a related webinar titled “Get Charged Up for the New York Energy Plan”.  My first post on this webinar described the response to my question does New York need a Climate Act feasibility analysis. This post addresses the presentation of one of the speakers.

I am convinced that implementation of the New York Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) net-zero mandates will do more harm than good if the electric system transition relies only on wind, solar, and energy storage because of reliability and affordability risks.  I have followed the Climate Act since it was first proposed, submitted comments on the Climate Act implementation plan, and have written over 470 articles about New York’s net-zero transition.  The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect the position of any of my previous employers or any other organization I have been associated with, these comments are mine alone.

Takeaway Message – If you don’t have ~15 minutes to read the whole thing

This article describes the presentation by Janet Joseph who was deeply involved in the development of the Scoping Plan.  She noted that issues associated with reliability and affordability are real problems that the advocacy community must address. The insurmountable problem with that is reality bats last. 

Her presentation and the others in the webinar did not provide solid support for the listeners to address the reliability and affordability problems. In my previous post about this webinar I documented that the claim by Dr. Robert Howarth that no new technology is necessary is contradicted by the agencies and organization responsible for electric system reliability.  Janet Joseph’s presentation disparaged those professionals so I expect that will be the essence of advocate comments.   Her presentation also argued that the energy plan should align with the Scoping Plan ignoring the fact that there hasn’t been a response to critical comments on that document.  Worse, the Hochul Administration has never proven that the list of strategies in the Scoping Plan are feasible. 

Overview

The Climate Act established a New York “Net Zero” target (85% reduction in GHG emissions and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050.  It includes an interim 2030 reduction target of a 40% GHG reduction by 2030. Two targets address the electric sector: 70% of the electricity must come from renewable energy by 2030 and all electricity must be generated by “zero-emissions” resources by 2040. The Climate Action Council (CAC) was responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlined how to “achieve the State’s bold clean energy and climate agenda.” The Integration Analysis prepared by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and its consultants quantified the impact of the electrification strategies.  That material was used to develop the Draft Scoping Plan outline of strategies.  After a year-long review, the Scoping Plan was finalized at the end of 2022.  Since then, the State has been trying to implement the Scoping Plan recommendations through regulations, proceedings, and legislation. 

Although related, the Energy Plan should not be confused with the Scoping Plan.  Every several years the New York Energy Planning Board is required to update its overall energy plan for the state. The process begins with an initial document that identifies a “scope” of work–meaning the set of things to be evaluated in the plan with a defined planning horizon of 2040. This makes the Climate Act’s 2040 goal of carbon-free electricity particularly relevant. That plan is to rely on wind, solar, and energy storage.  In my opinion, the Energy Plan must prove this will work.

Key Takeaways from the Event

The description of the New Yorkers for Clean Power sponsored a webinar titled “Get Charged Up for the New York Energy Plan” stated:

on November 15th. We are electrified by the demonstrated interest and information shared to support New York’s climate goals through the development of an ambitious and equitable State Energy Plan. To recap, our featured speakers were:

  • Janet Joseph, Principal, JLJ Sustainability Solutions (Former VP of Strategy and Market Development, NYSERDA
  • Dr. Robert Howarth, Member, New York’s Climate Action Council, and David R. Atkinson Professor of Ecology and Environmental Biology at Cornell University
  • Christopher Casey, Utility Regulatory Director for New York Climate and Energy, Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC)

We’re excited to share the recording and slideshow from the event: Here is the recording of the event and check out the Presenters’ slides here.

Key Takeaways from the Event

  • Energy Plan is foundational to achieving New York’s climate and energy goals, aligning policies with the CLCPA.
  • Engagement from advocates, community members and developers is critical for ensuring equitable and actionable outcomes.
  • Challenges like building decarbonization and system reliability require innovative solutions and statutory changes.

This post addresses the presentations of Janet Joseph with respect to my concern that transitioning the New York electric grid to one that relies primarily on wind, solar, and energy storage will adversely affect reliability and affordability. 

Janet Joseph Presentation

The introduction for Janet Joseph notes that before her present gig with her own consulting firm she worked at the New York State Energy Research & Development Authority (NYSERDA).  In that role she was involved in the development of the Scoping Plan and earlier iterations of the Energy Plan.  Her

presentation noted that now that she is on her own, she can say what she “really thinks” about the transition dictated by the Climate Act.

One of my issues with New York’s unilateral net-zero transition is that we are such a small player in this global problem that whatever we do really cannot make a difference.  Joseph argued the opposing view that New York’s climate agenda is important.  She believes that New York needs to lead the way showing other jurisdictions how decarbonization can be accomplished.  “Mother nature’s accounting system is the only one that matters means we have to push for things that can be replicated in other regions”.  She did note that political accounting means we must push for policies that provide real co-benefits.  There were many things stated during the webinar that I take exception to, and this is one of them.  The calculation of co-benefits is largely a values judgement exercise that the Scoping Plan has biased by over-estimating benefits and ignoring disbenefits.  I could go on, but this is a minor issue relative to the Energy Plan.

Joseph explained the differences between the Energy Plan and Scoping Plan.  Her description of the Energy Plan concerns me.  She stated that the energy plan is the original place where NY’s “progressive energy policies and practices originated” due to the energy crisis of the 1970’s.  In my opinion one of the major tenets of progressivism is the preference for equity over equality which I believe adds unnecessary risks to electric system planning.  Note that the NYCP takeaways include the desire for “equitable and actionable outcomes”.  Joseph also said that the Energy Plan is “the vehicle used to push many progressive policies in New York”.    Equity “recognizes that each person has different circumstances and allocates the exact resources and opportunities needed to reach an equal outcome”.  On the other hand, “equality means each individual or group of people is given the same resources or opportunities”.   Translating that difference into electric system planning is a distraction for safe and adequate power for everyone.

Jospeh’s presentation notes that policies like renewable portfolio standards, energy efficiency, solar and storage issues all came from the energy plan.  I am disappointed by her remarks related to renewable energy.  She stated that “In the 1990’s, get this, we were debating 300 MW of renewable energy” because the opposition at the time said, “it would bring the system down”.  She concluded “Same arguments and same barriers in different decades” insinuating the proposed transition is simple.  In the first place, the scale of the renewable development is different – in 2030 wind and solar is expected to be over 100 times greater than 300 MW.  I think it is irresponsible to demonize the people who are responsible for keeping the lights on by anyone who will suffer no consequences by being wrong.  The biggest issue is that we are now debating whether the existing electric system of New York can be converted to one that relies on renewables even though no jurisdiction anywhere has successfully done so.  Disparaging New York’s electric experts gives the advocates who listened to the presentation false security and hope.

Joseph noted that while we have a comprehensive climate plan, we still must do the energy plan.  This is another point of disagreement.  In my opinion, the Scoping Plan is not comprehensive, it is just an outline of strategies that the Integration Analysis claims will comply with the Climate Act mandates. There has never been any responses to critiques raised during the Scoping Plan comment process but, more egregious from my perspective, there has never been a feasibility analysis. 

In the presentation she said that there were five things advocates should be looking  to be included in the Energy Plan but in her presentation she only described four things.

She said that the first aspect that needs to be included in the Energy Plan is alignment between the scoping plan and the energy plan.  Joseph argued that confusion and conflict between the two documents would cause delays, and we do not have time for that.  She wants “at a minimum, high level alignment, and ideally all the way down to perfect synergy of these documents”. In my opinion, the presumption made by the presenters that the Scoping Plan is feasible is simply crossing our fingers and hoping.  I raised many issues in my Draft Scoping Plan comments that were not addressed by the Climate Action Council and remain unresolved to this day.  Therefore, the Energy Plan offers the opportunity to correct the oversights and errors in the Scoping Plan.  It is inappropriate to assume alignment of the documents is appropriate.  We need to determine feasibility.

The second aspect raised was that the Energy Plan is a medium range plan from 2025 to 2040.  Her presentation urged the advocates to not debate how we will achieve the last 20%.  Joseph said that her experience has led her to believe we should focus on what we need to do to achieve the next 20% of reductions.  I disagree with this concept because it is likely that when the technologies for dispatchable emissions-free resources are selected nuclear power will be the best choice.  If that is the case, then renewables are not needed, making the current approach a costly dead end.

The third item she mentioned was that the Energy Plan has its roots in system reliability.  She said opponents to the renewables approach will be harping on reliability and affordability.  She admitted that those issues are real and that they will resonate politically.  Then she said that “the advocacy community must be armed to fight that battle and address the impact on reliability and affordability as best you can.”  She went on “System reliability issues will be the primary lenses through which recommendations will be filtered.”  Then she gave an example where the Urban Green Council partnered with a utility and a “credible analytical entity” to determine where reliability issues would not be an issue for New York City residential building electrification.  This is a common advocacy approach where “results for hire” consultants develop an analysis that supports the pre-conceived conclusions of funding organizations.  In my previous post on this webinar I documented that a similar targeted analysis that runs contrary to the findings of all the agencies of responsible for New York electric system reliability is being used to support renewable development.  In my opinion, the only way to refute concerns about reliability issues associated with renewables is to cherry pick analyses and ignore reality.

The fourth aspect energy plan she made is particularly concerning.  She said that (my transcript):

We have to evolve and expand from a narrow technocratic focus on the engineering requirements that keep the fuel flowing and the lights on to one that considers how our system, our infrastructure, and our practices need to change to increase the resiliency of human beings to survive within the new energy system dynamics and new climate extremes.

This aspirational baloney is difficult to interpret.  The interpretation and weighting of the proposed energy plan effects on “new energy system dynamics” and “new climate extremes” makes all the difference in the interpretation of her comments.  When advocates ignore the difference between weather and climate to ascribe every extreme weather event to climate change then the concept that everything needs to change to deal with the supposed existential threat is necessary.  She could be arguing that the Energy Plan must address this effect.  On the other hand, the reference to “new energy system dynamics” could be a tacit acknowledgement that relying on weather-dependent resources is an inherently less reliable approach.  I believe that relying on weather-dependent resources will inevitably mean that someday electricity will not be available when needed most.  She goes but does not clarify this distinction in my opinion:

“In short we need more focus not on just system reliability in this energy plan but resiliency.  We cannot be afraid to talk about what happens when the lights go out and how people remain safe in that event.  We will have storms, we will have downed power lines, and the lights will go out.  We need to think through this.  It is not just a New York issue.  This is a certainly a global issue.  We will have extreme weather that will affect the totality of our infrastructure. 

This is bigger than an emergency preparedness plan.  Our future energy and related infrastructure policies and practices need to be shaped with these considerations in mind.  Here too, I sat in too many conversations over the years where people are debating – That shouldn’t be in an energy plan – it should be in an adaptation plan.  “That’s not a climate plan – it should be in a resiliency plan”.  It doesn’t matter where it is folks.  We have to start thinking through the weather extremes that we will be faced with, this rapidly changing energy system and how it affects people.  We need more focus on resiliency. 

She then threw out some ideas to “make it real”.  She suggested both heating and cooling capabilities should be mandated for landlords in our future climate.  She recommended more “community resiliency facilities with backup power”.  She also suggested that home designs should include “climate-safe zones” and maybe “requirements for solar and storage on every new home and subsidies for those who can’t afford it”.  She recommended weatherization to increase passive survivability in the event of a power outage.    She admitted that we have “GW of solar that is “not going to help us from a resiliency standpoint” and concluded that we need to determine what to do to improve upon this.

She concluded that:

I think that we have made tremendous progress in New York State in the Climate Scoping Plan developing really comprehensive GHG mitigation strategies.  I am proud to have participated in that activity.  But I don’t think we really have moved the needle on policies and practices that would develop a more resilient system at the central community and local level.  Just to be clear

I am not in the camp of those people who think every change we are making to reduce GHG emissions and increase renewables is going to take the system down.  I am in the camp that we have to think through this and make sure we are building in resiliency all the way down to the local level.  So I am hopeful that this energy plan will pick up on those hard resiliency discussions in a very meaningful and substantive way.  These are hard conversations but we have to start having them. 

The interpretation of which factors affecting resiliency she is concerned about is important.  She has enough experience and background to know that the new energy system dynamics have real risks.  I have no doubt that she sincerely believes that “new climate extremes” is a real thing.  If she believe that the primary resiliency driver is more extreme weather, her suggestions boil down to whether the emphasis should be on mitigation or adaptation.  On the other hand, she could be admitting that the new energy system dynamics are a real concern that could be addressed by accepting less reliability and just dealing with blackouts better.  That is not outside the realm of possibility because I have read climate advocates who have argued that it is appropriate.  However, that response is antithetical to New York electric resource planning doctrine and I think most electric users in the state would not accept more frequent and longer blackouts as an acceptable risk for reducing GHG emissions.

Conclusion

It was interesting that Janet Joseph recognized that reliability and affordability are real.  Then she said that “the advocacy community must be armed to fight that battle and address the impact on reliability and affordability as best you can.”  The insurmountable problem with that is reality bats last.  I have three related concerns about presentations at this webinar.

The presentations gives Climate Act proponents false confidence that the proposed transition to an electric system that relies on wind, solar, and energy storage has few risks.  In my previous post about this webinar I documented that the claim by Dr. Robert Howarth that no new technology is necessary is contradicted by the agencies and organization responsible for electric system reliability.  Janet Joseph’s presentation disparaged those professionals inappropriately in my opinion.

Joseph’s remarks also argued that the upcoming Energy Plan must align with the Climate Act’s Scoping Plan.  I do not think that the Scoping Plan proved that its proposed strategies would maintain system reliability standards or that it would be affordable.  In her leadership role on the Energy Efficiency and Housing Advisory Panel she never responded to related comments and questions on the Draft Scoping Plan.  That lack of acknowledgement of criticism was true of all the critical comments made.  As a result, I think the Scoping Plan is flawed and must not be used as the template for the Energy Plan.

Finally, I disagree with the Joseph’s support for progressive equity concepts relative to the electric system.  That approach would require treating the availability and affordability of electricity differently to certain constituencies.  That is anathema to me because I think there will be serious unintended consequences.

My Comments on the NYPA Draft Strategic Renewables Plan

The 2023-24 Enacted State Budget authorized and directed the New York Power Authority (NYPA) to advance renewable energy and support other state priorities.  Last month NYPA published its Draft Renewables Strategic Plan (Dreft Plan) which describes how NYPA will “operationalize our renewables work, along with our continued and critical obligations to our existing generation, transmission, customer, and community commitments.”  This article describes my comments on the Draft Plan.  I encourage New Yorkers to also submit comments.

I am convinced that implementation of the New York Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) net-zero mandates will do more harm than good if the electric system transition relies on wind, solar, and energy storage.  I have followed the Climate Act since it was first proposed, submitted comments on the Climate Act implementation plan, and have written over 480 articles about New York’s net-zero transition.  The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect the position of any of my previous employers or any other organization I have been associated with, these comments are mine alone.

Overview

The Climate Act established a New York “Net Zero” target (85% reduction in GHG emissions and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050.  It includes an interim 2030 reduction target of a 40% GHG reduction by 2030. Two targets address the electric sector: 70% of the electricity must come from renewable energy by 2030 and all electricity must be generated by “zero-emissions” resources by 2040. The Climate Action Council (CAC) was responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlined how to “achieve the State’s bold clean energy and climate agenda.” The Integration Analysis prepared by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and its consultants quantified the impact of the electrification strategies.  That material was used to develop the Draft Scoping Plan outline of strategies.  After a year-long review, the Scoping Plan was finalized at the end of 2022.  Since then, the State has been trying to implement the Scoping Plan recommendations through regulations, proceedings, and legislation.  The Build Public Renewables Act (BPRA) is an legislation example.

Draft Renewables Strategic Plan

The Executive Summary states:

The Power Authority of the State of New York (“NYPA” or the “Power Authority”) is pleased to publish for public comment and hearings its inaugural draft Strategic Plan for developing new renewable energy generation projects to supply New Yorkers with affordable, reliable, and emissions-free electricity.

The main point in my comments is that there is no evidence that renewable energy generation projects can provide affordable and reliable electricity so that presumption must be addressed first.

The 2023-24 Enacted State Budget authorized and directed the Power Authority to engage in the largest expansion of our responsibilities in decades to advance renewable energy and support other state priorities. This expanded authority will enable NYPA to accelerate the development of renewable energy, support workforce training for jobs in the renewable energy sector, and to establish the Renewable Energy Access and Community Help (REACH) program to provide bill credits for low- and moderate-income ratepayers in disadvantaged communities served by New York’s investor-owned utilities.

The Climate Act is a Progressive “Green New Deal”.   Addressing climate change is just a front to achieve other social aims like job creation, economic growth, and environmental justice.

In the time since Governor Kathy Hochul signed the State Budget into law on May 3, 2023, NYPA has made major progress toward the development of new renewables. This progress includes establishing the business structures, filling key personnel roles, and garnering other necessary resources to carry out our new missions, all while advancing the first tranche of projects.

Like any bureaucracy, NYPA’s primary business goal is to get bigger, and this is a golden opportunity for growth.  However, when the costs to comply with the Climate Act goals are totaled, I guarantee that the bureaucratic expenses for these resources will never be included. 

With the opportunity to become a leader in responsible development of new renewables, NYPA aims to expeditiously build affordable projects, staying grounded in our commitment to the communities in which we operate now and, in the future, all while ensuring fair and family-sustaining worker wages.

One of the worst outcomes of the Climate Act implementation has been the destruction of “home rule” whereby local governments have “the ability to craft ordinances and make decisions based on local needs, rather than having to follow a one-size-fits-all state code that’s decided by state legislators.”  State generation permitting rules and transmission siting rules have been modified specifically to enable a faster buildout of renewable energy facilities short circuiting the ability of affected towns to object.  This law adds to that problem because now projects that are not privately feasible will be pushed ahead by NYPA.

We are proud to present this inaugural NYPA Renewables Strategic Plan, which describes how the Power Authority will operationalize our new renewables work, along with our continued and critical obligations to our existing generation, transmission, customer, and community commitments.

My Comments on the plan also raise three points all related to the inanity of politicians thinking they should dictate energy policy.  The overarching problem is the feasibility of a renewables-based electric system was the first concern addressed.  I responded to one of the specific political components in the BPRA the mandate to shut down NYPA’s peaking power plants in New York City.  Finally, state officials have a way of overlooking inconvenient aspects of their programs which I addressed with respect to solar siting.

Feasibility

This has been a recurrent theme at this blog since the beginning but the last few months the necessity of a pause in implementation to determine whether New York should be planning to rely on wind, solar, and energy storage has become clear.  As a result, I have been saying the same thing repeatedly which must bore regular readers.  Bear with me in this section.

The authors of the Climate Act believed that no new technologies are needed to implement their aspirational electric system mandates.  That is wrong.  The experts responsible for electric reliability planning in New York and independent experts capable of refined analyses of the electric grid agree that during periods of extended low wind and solar resource availability a new category of generating resources called Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resources (DEFR) is required.  The problem is that there is no commercially available DEFR technology that can be expanded as needed to support projected wind and solar resources necessary to comply with the 2040 “zero-emissions” mandate.  I maintain a feasibility study to address this requirement is necessary.

In my opinion, the most promising DEFR backup technology is nuclear generation because it is the only candidate resource that is technologically ready, can be expanded as needed, and does not suffer from limitations of the Second Law of Thermodynamics. If the only viable DEFR solution is nuclear, then renewables cannot be implemented without it.  But nuclear can replace renewables, eliminating the need for a huge DEFR backup resource and even more massive buildout of wind turbines and solar panels sprawling over the state’s lands and water.  Therefore, it would be prudent to pause renewable development until a proven DEFR technology is proven feasible because nuclear generation may be the only viable path to zero emissions.  That would make any further renewable investments a bad choice.

Peaking Power Plants

The authors of the enabling legislation for the NYPA renewables responsibilities also included a specific mandate for New York City peaking power plants owned by NYPA.  Environmental justice advocates like the Peak Coalition, have convinced state officials that New York City peaking power plants are “perhaps the most egregious energy-related example of what environmental injustice means today.”  The enacting law for the Draft Plan specifically directed NYPA to publish a plan by May 3, 2025, to end generating electricity with fossil fuel at its 11 small natural gas power plant (SNGPP) units located at seven sites in New York City and on Long Island by the end of 2030 if reliability and environmental requirements are met.  I have documented that the presumption of egregious harm is based on selective choice of metrics, poor understanding of air quality health impacts,  and ignorance of air quality trends. In brief, the continued operation of these facilities will have no discernable impact on local neighborhood air quality and shutting them down is solely political virtue-signaling.  On the other hand, these facilities serve specific reliability needs that are not easily replaced. 

Someday, someone in the Hochul Administration is going to have to confront the advocacy organizations and explain that tradeoffs are often required to balance different societal needs.  In this instance it is the tradeoff between the desire for zero pollutant impacts against the need to keep the lights on.  At least in this instance the law does mandate that a feasibility analysis is necessary before the plants get shut down because the law states they can only be shut down “if reliability and environmental requirements are met.”

Solar Development

It is very frustrating to me that New York utility-scale solar development has no requirement to protect prime farmland.  In my draft Scoping Plan  comments I called for a moratorium on solar development because the Hochul Administration has not required solar developers to adhere to all the NYS Department of Agriculture and Markets (NYSDAM) guidelines protecting prime farmland.  As of November 25, 2024, my Solar Project Scorecard shows that  3,414 MW of solar projects have been permitted on project areas of 46,981 acres. These projects will take 7,588 acres of prime farmland out of production.  Of the 21 solar projects permitted only 8 meet the NYSDAM guidelines.  NYPA solar projects should meet the NYSDAM guidelines.

There are two other solar deployment issues that the Draft Plan should address.  The Integration Analysis projections for solar capacity presume that the facilities use tilting axis solar panels to maximize production.  However, the Hochul Administration has not made that a requirement so there are facilities being subsidized that will produce less energy than expected.  This means that the Scoping Plan projections for capacity and costs are underestimated.  NYPA solar projects should use tilting-axis panels.  Finally, a simple constraint to maximize availability when needed the most should be included.  Specifically, subsidizing solar panels that lay flat on rooftops should not be supported by NYPA because they could be covered by snow when temperatures are lowest and loads highest.

Discussion

New York State residents who read this can comment on the Draft Plan until December 8. 

The New York Power Authority welcomes your views on how we can most effectively and equitably build new renewable resources to support the State’s efforts to advance its ambitious renewable energy goals. If you have feedback or comments, please contact us using the form here. 

I suggest that you make the following points:

  • No jurisdiction has successfully built an electric system that relies primarily on wind, solar, and energy storage without fossil fuel backup.
  • The agencies that are responsible for electric system reliability agree that a new resource is required for periods of prolonged poor wind and solar availability.
  • Therefore, an analysis to identify technologies that can maintain current standards of affordability and reliability must be completed before NYPA provides funding to support renewable projects.

Conclusion

In my opinion, experts who understand the electric system agree that the wind, solar, and energy storage system envisioned by the authors of the Climate Act needs a new technology.  I believe experts agree with me that the only feasible DEFR technology is nuclear power and that cannot be deployed fast enough to meet the aspirational schedule of the Climate Act.  There is tremendous pressure for agency experts and responsible organizations to not speak out against the politically correct façade that renewables are the solution for decarbonizing New York’s electric system.  I understand why they do not speak out but it is frustrating.  I only hope that in private conversations with responsible public officials the experts are recommending a feasibility study. 

The more people who say “Please provide evidence that the enormous changes to the existing system proposed in the Climate Act can work” the better.  Climate Act proponents have never provided well-documented cost estimates to reach net-zero from a base case where decarbonization is not considered.  The requirement to develop, test, and deploy sufficient wind, solar, energy storage, and DEFR by 2040 is a tremendous challenge to reliability.  It is also fair to ask for an environmental assessment of the cumulative impacts of all the resources needed for the wind, solar and energy storage system proposed.  All those concerns should be considered against the backdrop that the climate change issue is a global problem and our contributions are negligible.

Commentary on Recent Articles November 28, 2024

This is an update of articles that I have read that I want to mention but only have time to provide a brief summary.  I have also included links to some other items of interest.  Previous commentaries are available here. 

I have been following the Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) since it was first proposed and most of the articles described below are related to the net-zero transition.  I have devoted a lot of time to the Climate Act because I believe the ambitions for a zero-emissions economy embodied in the Climate Act outstrip available renewable technology such that the net-zero transition will do more harm than good. The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect the position of any of my previous employers or any other company I have been associated with, these comments are mine alone.

Northeast Wildfires

Under the category of yet another instance where those who do not understand the difference between weather and climate the recent wildfires in New York and New Jersey are being blamed on climate change.  In brief, climate is what you expect, and weather is what you get.  In the context of climate because wildfires have occurred many times in the past the observed wildfires are due to weather.  A post at Climate Realism documents the history of wildfires in New Jersey,  provides a reference to the New York wildfire data, and shows that the trend of national wildfire data “shows the acreage lost to wildfires in the United States has declined sharply since the early part of the 20th century.”

Climate Scam Terminology

Chris Martz interprets climate terminology in this post.  He argues that anthropogenic global warming is not a “hoax” or “scam” because there is a legitimate underlying scientific basis.  He points out that there is general agreement on the following points:

Global mean surface temperature (GMST) has risen about 1.2°C since 1850. The warming since 1980 is about as equal in magnitude and rate as the early 20th century warming from 1910 to 1945. In general, it has been warming for >250 years.

Burning of coal, oil and natural gas for energy has increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels by ~51% since 1850. We know this because there is an isotopic fingerprint in the decrease of C13/C12 ratios. While this is not uniquely indicative of anthropogenic origin, it is a pretty solid indicator.

Earth’s average surface temperature is a function of energy gain versus energy loss. Given there is a radiation spectrum on CO₂ in the infrared (IR) band of the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum, all else constant, adding more of it to the atmosphere should reduce the rate of cooling by emission of IR to space. In effect, it induces a cooling tendency in the stratosphere and a warming tendency in the troposphere. This has in fact been observed.

However, he explains that there is no agreement on how much of the observed warming is man-made, the equilibrium climate sensitivity, whether warming is dangerous or beneficial, and the best measures for adaptation and mitigation.

For what it is worth I concur with the three points of agreement.  I also believe his conclusion is correct, especially his description of the real scam below:

So, there is in fact a legitimate scientific basis behind global warming theory. The basics are pretty well understood; the devil is in the details and the science is far from settled.

The case isn’t closed. That book remains wide open on the table.

However, what is indeed a scam is the push for “Net Zero” CO₂ emissions by 2050.

A legitimate scientific issue has become captive of a Malthusian religion by power-hungry elected officials and unelected bureaucrats. Climate policy is an anti-capitalist, anti-human movement. These people push for one-world governance where you are told what you can and cannot eat, what appliances you can and cannot buy, where you can or cannot travel and want to force us to adopt a carbon credit cap and trade system in a cashless society. The policy is the scam, not the basic underlying scientific theory. 

Home-Based Battery Storage Fantasy

One of the “solutions” of clean energy fanatics is that we don’t need to rely on utility-scale energy storage or need to make transmission upgrades if grid operators can tap into electric vehicle batteries and home storage batteries.  The Manhattan Institute rightly calls that electricity “magical thinking.”

Jonathan Lesser eviscerates a recent article in the Conversation that makes such a claim.  He argues that the need for more solar and wind means that transmission will be needed to get that energy to where it is needed, and local distribution networks will have to be upgraded when everything is electrified if using home batteries is to work.  Then he estimates how much this magical solution would cost – on the order of $3 trillion just for the batteries.  His conclusion is right on the money:

Ignoring physical and economic realities may be fashionable, but reality always wins in the long run. The electric grid and its components form a complex system which most of us take for granted, which enable misleading claims regarding the simplicity of electrifying everything and powering it all almost exclusively with wind, solar, and batteries. Electric utilities and planners can provide a public service by explaining why this scenario, given today’s technology, isn’t possible.

Disinformation Censorship

Charles Rotter addresses a big concern of mine. 

In yet another chilling example of Orwellian overreach, the G20 Summit in Brazil has unveiled a new international effort to stifle dissent under the banner of “fighting disinformation.” This latest scheme, dubbed the Global Initiative for Information Integrity on Climate Change, is spearheaded by the United Nations and UNESCO. With a financial war chest provided by nations like the United Kingdom, France, and Sweden, this initiative isn’t about “truth” or “science”—it’s about control.

I agree with his description:

Let’s call this what it is: a blatant attempt to silence anyone questioning the so-called climate crisis narrative. Under the guise of combating “misinformation,” these global bureaucracies aim to crush free thought and erase critical voices from the public square. This isn’t just an attack on skeptics—it’s an assault on open discourse itself.

Ron Clutz published a related article “Misinformation” Means “Shut Up”.  Clutz excerpts an article by Daniel B. Klein that reveals the power play currently destroying our civil discourse.  There is a quote defining disinformation as meaning:

‘Shut up, peasant.’ It’s a bullet aimed at killing the conversation. It’s loaded with hostility to reason, evidence, debate and all the stuff that makes our democracy great.

When the Climate Act Scoping Plan was being discussed misinformation accusations were thrown about whenever advocates responded to things they did not want to hear.  Don’t be surprised when you hear it used again when experts inevitably point out the Climate Act wind, solar, and energy storage approach is impossible.

Energy Transitions Don’t Happen on Command

Bud’s Offshore Energy explains why many who think it might be possible to transition to zero carbon understand that a politically motivated schedule is a disaster waiting to happen.  He includes graphics by Bjorn Lomborg and Alex Epstein that show the energy transition is not happening according to plan. 

Videos

Gerard Holland lays out the staggering cost of renewable energy at Alliance for Responsible Citizenship Australia.  Rich Ellenbogen notes:

The video is about 14 minutes long and it is well worth watching.  It discusses the staggering costs of the energy transition in Australia.  If the video sounds familiar, it is because he is bringing up the same issues that we have been beating the drum on, except he is primarily discussing costs.  The reason for the cost discussion is because of Australia’s incredibly favorable renewable landscape.  Their technical issues are a fraction of those that NY State will face.  In NY State, we will not only have the economic hurdles that he mentions but we will also have an incredibly challenging technical landscape to address also. The speaker claims a cost of $95,000 per person.  Because of the higher population densities and the lower capacity factors for the energy in NY State, it will cost far more to site, install, and wire the transmission for the renewable generation.  In addition, Holland notes that the burden of the costs will disproportionately be on the backs of the poor.  The same will be true in NY State and that is already occurring but that is what the CLCPA is doing in the name of “Climate Justice

Debate: Is Decarbonization Worth the Cost  

Note that this link takes you to the end of the video.   I had intended to do a post on this debate, but other issues prevented that.  Tom Shepstone summarized the debate here.  The closing statements of the debaters is worth a listen.  Four key points from those that argue the decarbonization is worth the cost: we can’t do 100% as net-zero programs like the Climate Act demand, we need to do research, we must learn adaptation, and decarbonization using nuclear works.

Washington State Goes One for Three on the Pragmatic Climate Scale…Maybe

One of the things that makes my blogging obsession worthwhile is meeting people across the world in connection with my posts.  It varies from people who comment on my work in the comments section of posts to people who have corresponded directly.  The direct contacts have provided insights into their own experiences that are helpful to me.  There also are a few who write with material that I use for guest posts.  Paul Fundingsland is one of the latter who has provided information for posts about his experiences in Washington State with their net-zero plan.  This post annotates the article (Washington State Goes One for Three on the Pragmatic Climate Scale…Maybe) that I edited for him to post at Watts Up With That.

Paul describes himself as a “Free Lance writer with a two decade long obsession with all things climate change.”  Although he is a retired professor, he has no scientific or other degrees specific to these kinds of issues that can be cited as offering personal official expertise or credibility. What he does have is a two-decade-old avid, enthusiastic, obsession with all things Climate Change related. 

In this article he described three climate related initiatives that were decided in Washington recently.  Initiative 2066 was a referendum to repeal laws and regulations that discourage natural gas use and would require current natural gas customers to switch to electric heating.  Initiative 2117 was another referendum to repeal the state’s commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 95% by 2050 in the Climate Commitment Act.  Finally, the Horse Haven Wind, Solar and Battery Complex permit was approved.

Initiative 2066

I am envious that Washington State has a way for citizens to demand a referendum to put a law up for a vote of the people.  This was one of two recall referendums.

The bright spot was the successful passage of Initiative 2066 which ensures access to natural gas in homes and other buildings and repeals a state law requiring plans to transition from the use of natural gas to electricity. The final tally was 52% yes, 48% no. 

Washington is basically a one-party blue state – Kamala Harris won by a lopsided 58% of the presidential vote. Even though only a third of the residents rely on natural gas with the bulk of the populace (58%) using electricity, the “yes” vote prevailed in a surprising outcome given the political demographics.

I think there were several reasons for the outcome.  The main issue that resonated with all the gas users was the extreme cost of a switch over from gas appliances to all electric they would be expected to finance almost entirely by themselves.  Since Washingtonians have been using gas with no significant identifiable adverse effects for decades, it was hard to convince them that demonizing the use of gas was now all of a sudden, a threat to their health and wellbeing. There also may have been a fair number of the electric heat users who preferred using gas for cooking and in their fireplaces.

The “vote no” people took the main tack that using gas was a pollutant, a health hazard and would prevent the State from achieving its Climate Commitment Act goals.

It is only a matter of time until a similar law is passed in New York that forbids natural gas use because the Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) mandates building emission limits that can only be met if natural gas is prohibited.  The New York Home Energy Affordable Transition Act (NY HEAT) puts some limits on natural gas use but stops short of the Washington law I think.  Fundingsland goes on to point out that litigation of the referendum result is still possible.

Despite the result there still is a maybe part of the passage of this initiative.  The “no vote campaign” intends to take this issue to the State Supreme Court. They are claiming it should be voided because it violates the State rule that an initiative should not embrace more than one subject. They have deep pockets to fight this vote of the people.  The sore losers include the Sierra Club, Statewide Poverty Action Network, Front and Centered, plus “unnamed” renewable energy groups (no surprise there).

The “yes” campaign claims the initiative was written very carefully expecting successful passage to be challenged in court. The “no” campaign started putting their challenge together months before the final vote just in case it passed.

It will be interesting to see if passage of I-2066 by the voters is brought before the State Supreme Court. Voiding the obvious majority of the people on some sort of technicality could prove problematic in coming elections by raising rational voter ire. That might give the “no” campaign second thoughts as to how this may play out in the long run if they pursue this avenue of opposition.

Initiative 2117

The referendum on the funding approach for the Washington version of the Climate Act is timely vis-à-vis New York.  The Hochul Administration is supposed to propose rules for the New York Cap-and-Invest program that will put a cost on carbon emissions.  That regulation is late, undoubtedly because of political fears that the costs are too high.  I was disappointed that a state that has seen a sharp increase in gasoline costs voted down repealing the Washington version.

On the losing side of the “one for three” pragmatic climate issues was voting down Initiative 2117 which would have essentially ended funding for the State’s Climate Commitment Act (CCA) resulting in lower gas prices at the pump. It really did not have a chance of passage once the big money came rolling in advertising against it. 

The five biggest donors against passage were all essentially billionaires. They included Steve and Connie Ballmer, Bill Gates, Microsoft (the company) and the 4-billion-dollar Nature Conservancy. Their media ads were very slick, very professional and appeared all over the TV channels at all times of the day and night but especially during the evening news, sports (football, soccer etc.). They were even on the Fox Business News channel. 

It really didn’t matter what time of day or what channel you were watching, there would be an ad to defeat this measure that would show up. The amount of money spent to defeat this measure must have been eye-popping.

The main selling point was that voting for I-2117 would cause unclean air, unclean water, worse wildfires, a dirtier environment with worse roads and transportation. Voting it down would mean cleaner air, cleaner water, better wildfire management, a cleaner environment, and even better roads and transportation. There was, of course, no mention of just how much less global warming would result from a no vote. 

One of the ads featured individuals wearing their respective professional garbs advocating voting no (doctor, fireman, construction worker, forest ranger, Tribal member, etc.) An observation was that these are the very same special interest groups who have recently been getting money from the CCA fund so of course they don’t want to see those funds go away.

One of the ads accused the promoter of this measure (and three of the other measures) of being just a greedy millionaire out for himself. Never mind the billionaires who funded the campaign against it and how or whether they might benefit somehow from it being defeated.

It was obvious the campaign for passage of I-2117 did not have the requisite funding to successfully get their message across with the necessary effective media advertising. The ads were spread too thinly between several issues. The ads were somewhat rudimentary, lacking a professional look, and they appeared sparsely. They just didn’t have the money and the focus to get their message across.

My personal opinion is that had the “yes” ads concentrated on the fact that no matter how much you were paying for a gallon of gas (whether a high price or low one) $10 would be going to the state for every 20 gallons of gas they bought. I think that would have made a much bigger impact on the voters by helping them understand just how much they were sending to the State every time they filled up.

Sadly the billionaires won this one. 

There still is hope because the costs, due to the law will only increase over time.

There is a chance this issue could be brought up for a statewide vote again at a later date, perhaps when Washington surpasses California for the cost of gas at the pump which may not be all that far off. If it is brought up again, the people behind it now know what they are up against and will have to adjust accordingly, being a lot more clever with their focus and their financing.

Horse Haven Wind, Solar, and Battery Complex

The other initiative was the approval of a massive renewable energy complex.  Nobody has proposed a single project this big in New York yet.

The other one of the three climate-related issues is our Governor’s final approval of the “Horse Haven Wind, Solar and Battery Complex” in Eastern Washington. It’s a huge complex stretching 24 scenic miles long and 8 miles wide covering 72,000 acres with 5,000 of those farmland acres surfaced with solar panels. The final proposal is to have either 172 five-hundred-foot towers or 113 six hundred seventy foot tall towers. The battery complex is yet to be determined as to size and placement.

A valiant opposition movement (here) of Benton County residences, tribal members and wildlife advocates has been so far unsuccessful in stopping this monstrosity from happening. The Energy Facility Site Evaluation Council confirmed the Governor’s approval in a 4-3 vote. There is now only one more avenue to pause or stop the building of this grotesque complex…the court system.

And that is exactly what has just happened. Benton county has filed suit against the state over this project.

One other long shot outside possibility that might stop this atrocious wind project from being built could be when the new national administration takes office in January. Indications are that the new administration intends to terminate subsidies for wind and solar projects. If that does happen, it is likely the Horse Haven Wind Farm may become unprofitable to build. 

Washington prides itself on being an enlightened, leading energy progressive state. This wind/solar/battery complex is anything but progressive. It is an exorbitantly expensive energy system at $1.7 billion (2021 estimate and counting) for the amount of intermittent power it can produce. It regressively degrades and seriously threatens the reliability of the existing electric grid by providing only non-dispatchable erratic weather dependent electricity. 

Nuclear Power

I am convinced that the wind, solar, and energy storage approach epitomized by the kind of project will do more harm than good.  I also believe that the only rational way to decarbonize the New York electric system is to deploy nuclear resources.  Fundingsland agrees as shown in the following.

A leading enlightened progressive State would be planning on installing a small modular nuclear system such as NuScale’s Voygr-12 module complex of SMRs. The NuScale SMR system was developed in Oregon and is the only one so far to receive design approval by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Or the State could support the expansion or duplication of Amazon and Energy Northwest’s planned Central Washington installation of X-energy’s 12 module system. 

Ironically, Energy Northwest is headquartered in Richland Washington. Their potential SMR site is a mere 50 miles from the planned wind farm next to the Columbia Nuclear Generating station (Washington’s only functioning nuclear plant). This gives their planned site close, easy access to the electrical grid. 

Both SMR systems can deliver dispatchable electricity under all weather conditions 24/7365. They are CO2 free and can generate approximately 924 actual nameplate MWe where as the wind system will be lucky to generate 40% of its nameplate. And that energy will be erratic and intermittent grid destabilizing energy that requires storage. Their respective footprints use only a miserly 0.06 square miles of land in contrast to the wind farm’s approximately 100 square miles. Their environmental footprint is small, scenically unobtrusive, and non-threatening to birds of prey.

Both SMR products have a passive safety system so they cannot melt down or blow up. Each one of the 12 SMRs composing either company’s modular complex are built in a factory and can be delivered by truck, rail or barge in three sections. 

There is a serious disconnect between the “Energy Magical Thinking” flowing from the Capitol in Olympia versus pragmatic, modern, non-invasive solutions available. This is especially disconcerting considering Portland Oregon (the headquarters of NuScale) is only 114 miles away from the capitol building in Olympia. 

On the Washington boarder to the east, the state of Idaho is embracing and promoting nuclear with it’s Idaho National Laboratory Frontiers Initiative. 

In their words: 

“Eight states are developing economic development plans focused on advanced nuclear energy deployment with the help from Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Frontiers Initiative.

Frontiers was established in 2021 to help stakeholders identify and capitalize on key economic  opportunities afforded by early adoption of advanced nuclear energy. The initiative also helps stakeholders leverage advanced nuclear to capture emerging global market opportunities in low-emission industries.

The 2024 Frontiers Initiative Impacts Report, released today, (Oct. 24) highlights the initiative’s impacts on first-mover states identified as actively pursuing advanced nuclear energy to encourage economic development.

We have strengthened our partnerships with stakeholders in first-mover states – Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and Alaska – while adding engagements where increasing interest in advanced

Nuclear energy intersects industry needs, including in Louisiana, Montana, North Dakota and South Carolina,” said Steven Aumeier, senior advisor at INL.” 

One of the advantages of publishing at Watts Up With That is that there is much wider exposure than at this blog.  As a result of the wider exposure there are more comments.  Sometimes that is not so good but more often there are valuable insights.  For example, in the comments to his article Beta Blocker provided links to several presentations and reports published in recent months concerning energy reliability in the US Northwest and described a hypothetical wind and solar expansion.  There is an enormous amount of useful information in those two comments.

Fundingsland also recommended a movie is called “Nuclear Now”.

It is by Oliver Stone and was released just last year (2023). It is an extremely thorough movie about the development of nuclear power from the very beginnings to the present day. It basically covers all the various aspects of nuclear. This includes the past massive demonstrations against its use in the 60s-70s as well as the three scary nuclear power plant accidents and why those issues mislead and continue to color the modern deployment of nuclear power.  It ends with a fairly thorough review of the modern nuclear systems, which countries are developing them (Russia, China, US) and how far along they are. And then it mostly concludes focusing a lot on SMRs.

Discussion

Fundingsland’s article argued that Washington is more talk than action.  Given that I think nuclear is the rational approach I would argue that New York should be trying to emulate Tennessee rather than California.   

transition, shamefully Washington State is not among these “first-mover states”.

If Washington was serious about being a modern enlightened energy progressive state, they also might want to look at what is happening in Tennessee. Their General Assembly created a $60 million fund (The Tennessee Nuclear Energy Fund) that has attracted four projects in the last six months headed by Orono USA, a company specializing in: “Uranium. Mining/conversion/enrichment, used nuclear fuel management and recycling, decommissioning shutdown nuclear energy facilities, federal site cleanup and closure and developing nuclear medicines to fight cancer”

Oak Ridge is determined to become “the place the nation is looking for to lead the next nuclear race”. Oak Ridge and Knoxville are now home to some 154 nuclear companies.

Oregon, Idaho and Tennessee have blown past Washington in the enlightened pragmatic electric energy transition. It leaves our state in the dustbin of yesterday’s expensive, environmentally invasive, dysfunctional grid threatening Wind/Solar/Battery energy systems. 

Fundingsland concluded

The jury is still out on whether Washington residents can hold on to their current right to use the energy of their choice for heating/cooking. And whether an out-of-date, environmentally destructive dysfunctional grid threatening Wind/Solar/Battery system gets installed against the wishes of the impacted citizens.

The state seems most focused on keeping money from it’s CCA (Climate Commitment Act) flowing from the hike in gas prices at the pump this act has caused. The state needs the money given that it was just announced it is currently around $10 billion in debt. My cynical side wonders just how much of that CCA money is going to end up being diverted towards reducing that debt rather than “fighting “Climate Change” as it was advertised to be used for. 

Washington state has many enlightened social programs to be proud of. There is a rational, pragmatic program supporting parents (both wife and husband) of newborns with a generous paid leave time so they can tend to their new child. A State sponsored long term care program has just been enacted designed for those elderly who do not have such means helping them towards the end off their days.  

But when it comes to the State’s energy policy, it’s a whole different story. “Magical Thinking” prevails forcing rationality and pragmatism to go right out through the ozone hole.

So much for Washington leading the nation with a modern, clean, reliable, environmentally friendly electrical energy transition path. It’s much more enlightening to watch what states like Idaho and Tennessee are doing to find out where the future of rational, pragmatic energy systems are going.

I expect that New York’s experience with Climate Act implementation will be the same as Washington State’s experience.  Thanks to Paul Fundingsland for sharing his experiences.  Now we just need to wake up the citizenry to stop the nonsense.

Does New York Need a Climate Act Feasibility Analysis

On September 9, 2024 the Hochul Administration initiated the development of the State Energy Plan announcing the release of a draft scope of the plan.  On November 15 New Yorkers for Clean Power (NYCP) sponsored a webinar titled “Get Charged Up for the New York Energy Plan” that was intended to brief their supporters about the Energy Plan.  This article will be the first of two posts addressing this webinar. I have a tendency to write comprehensive posts that are too long for my readers so I am going to break this story up.

I am convinced that implementation of the New York Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) net-zero mandates will do more harm than good if the electric system transition relies on wind, solar, and energy storage.  I have followed the Climate Act since it was first proposed, submitted comments on the Climate Act implementation plan, and have written over 470 articles about New York’s net-zero transition.  The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect the position of any of my previous employers or any other organization I have been associated with, these comments are mine alone.

Overview

The Climate Act established a New York “Net Zero” target (85% reduction in GHG emissions and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050.  It includes an interim 2030 reduction target of a 40% GHG reduction by 2030. Two targets address the electric sector: 70% of the electricity must come from renewable energy by 2030 and all electricity must be generated by “zero-emissions” resources by 2040. The Climate Action Council (CAC) was responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlined how to “achieve the State’s bold clean energy and climate agenda.” The Integration Analysis prepared by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and its consultants quantified the impact of the electrification strategies.  That material was used to develop the Draft Scoping Plan outline of strategies.  After a year-long review, the Scoping Plan was finalized at the end of 2022.  Since then, the State has been trying to implement the Scoping Plan recommendations through regulations, proceedings, and legislation. 

Although related, the Energy Plan should not be confused with the Scoping Plan.  Every several years the New York Energy Planning Board is required to update its overall energy plan for the state. The process begins with an initial document that identifies a “scope” of work–meaning the set of things to be evaluated in the plan with a defined planning horizon of 2040. This makes the Climate Act’s 2040 goal of carbon-free electricity particularly relevant. Unlike the 70% renewable goal which only applies in 2030, the 2040 goal does not mandate an arbitrary quota of “renewables”. Instead, it simply mandates carbon-free electricity, which can include nuclear power. 

Key Action Items from the Webinar

The description of the New Yorkers for Clean Power webinar titled “Get Charged Up for the New York Energy Plan” stated:

Thank you for joining us for the “Get Charged Up for the New York State Energy Plan” Teach-In on November 15th. We are electrified by the demonstrated interest and information shared to support New York’s climate goals through the development of an ambitious and equitable State Energy Plan. To recap, our featured speakers were:

  • Janet Joseph, Principal, JLJ Sustainability Solutions (Former VP of Strategy and Market Development, NYSERDA
  • Dr. Robert Howarth, Member, New York’s Climate Action Council, and David R. Atkinson Professor of Ecology and Environmental Biology at Cornell University
  • Christopher Casey, Utility Regulatory Director for New York Climate and Energy, Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC)

We’re excited to share the recording and slideshow from the event: Here is the recording of the event and check out the Presenters’ slides here.

Key Takeaways from the Event

  • Energy Plan is foundational to achieving New York’s climate and energy goals, aligning policies with the CLCPA.
  • Engagement from advocates, community members and developers is critical for ensuring equitable and actionable outcomes
  • Challenges like building decarbonization and system reliability require innovative solutions and statutory changes.

I am going to address the presentations of Janet Joseph and Robert Howarth in a later post.  I disagree with their comments that downplay my concern that transitioning the New York electric grid to one that relies primarily on wind, solar, and energy storage will adversely affect reliability and affordability.  This post is going to describe Dr. Howarth’s response to my specific question about the need for a feasibility analysis.   

Feasibility Analysis Background

Dr. Howarth is venerated by New York environmental advocates but I think their faith is misplaced.  His Introduction at the webinar extolled his role in vilifying methane’s alleged importance as a greenhouse gas.  I think that obsession is irrational.  The hostess also lauded his work supporting a Biden Administration pause on applications for LNG export terminals.  However his analysis was “riddled with errors” and he eventually retracted some of the more extreme claims that received media attention.

Howarth claims that he played a key role in the drafting of the Climate Act and his statement  at the meeting where the Scopng Plan was approved claims that no new technology is needed:

I further wish to acknowledge the incredible role that Prof. Mark Jacobson of Stanford has played in moving the entire world towards a carbon-free future, including New York State. A decade ago, Jacobson, I and others laid out a specific plan for New York (Jacobson et al. 2013). In that peer-reviewed analysis, we demonstrated that our State could rapidly move away from fossil fuels and instead be fueled completely by the power of the wind, the sun, and hydro. We further demonstrated that it could be done completely with technologies available at that time (a decade ago), that it could be cost effective, that it would be hugely beneficial for public health and energy security, and that it would stimulate a large increase in well-paying jobs. I have seen nothing in the past decade that would dissuade me from pushing for the same path forward. The economic arguments have only grown stronger, the climate crisis more severe. The fundamental arguments remain the same.

As I will show in this article, I think his claim that the transition can be implemented using wind, sun, and hydro using existing technologies is wrong.        

Do We Need a Feasibility Analysis?

I thought it would be appropriate to give Howarth the opportunity to recant his feasibility claim so I submitted the following question:

On November 4, 2024, the New York Department of Public Service (DPS) staff proposal concerning definitions for key terms notes that “Pursuing the 2040 target will require the deployment of novel technologies and their integration into a changing grid”.  Should there be a feasibility analysis in the energy plan to address their concern about the new technologies?

In his response, Howarth admitted that he was not familiar with the particular reference to the DPS proceeding that is implanting the Climate Act mandates.  Then he answered (my lightly edited transcription of his responses):

I can give you the perspective of three years of discussion on the CAC.  That it is we firmly stated that the goals can be met with existing technologies. We don’t need novel technologies.

One of my unresolved questions relative to Howarth’s position and the Scoping Plan is that he voted to support the Scoping Plan.  However, the Scoping Plan explicitly contradicts his statement that technologies available in 2013 were sufficient for the transition away from fossil fuels.  In particular, the Final Scoping Plan Appendix G, Section I page 49 states (my highlight included):

During a week with persistently low solar and wind generation, additional firm zero-carbon resources, beyond the contributions of existing nuclear, imports, and hydro, are needed to avoid a significant shortfall; Figure 34 demonstrates the system needs during this type of week. During the first day of this week, most of the short-duration battery storage is quickly depleted, and there are still several days in which wind and solar are not sufficient to meet demand. A zero-carbon firm resource becomes essential to maintaining system reliability during such instances. In the modeled pathways, the need for a firm zero-carbon resource is met with hydrogen-based resources; ultimately, this system need could be met by a number of different emerging technologies.

In addition to the Scoping Plan statement that a zero-carbon firm resource is needed, the organizations responsible for New York State electric system reliability agree.  The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) 2023-2042 System & Resource Outlook, and Power Trends 2024 analyses and the New York Department of Public Service (DPS) Proceeding 15-E-0302 Technical Conference determined that DEFR was needed.  Independent analyses by the Cornell Biology and Environmental Engineering, Richard Ellenbogen, and Nuclear New York also found that it was needed.  For example, a very readable description of the DEFR problem by Tim Knauss describing the work done by Cornell’s Biology and Environmental Engineering Anderson Lab found that “Just 15 years from now, the electric grid will need about 40 gigawatts of new generating capacity that can be activated regardless of wind speeds, cloud cover or other weather conditions”.

While this is not directly applicable to the DEFR requirement I want to highlight the following Howarth quote:

Now having said that.  There are a lot of details to work out, energy storage is going to be critical.  Lisa made the point that ground source heat pumps and thermal networks are better than air source heat pumps.  They are hugely more effective in the peak time in January.  If we go that route we don’t need as much electrical capacity overall. I would add that thermal storage is cheaper than electrical storage for energy.  Particularly if you have a thermal network because you can store heat that can provide a community with heat for weeks to months to even on an annual basis.  There is a community in Saskatchewan I believe where they store heat six months at a time which is very cheap compared to other things

I believe Howarth’s thermal network reference is to Calgary’s Drake Landing solar heating community.   There is only one problem. The system established in 2006 is failing and will be decommissioned less than 20 years after it was built.  In my opinion, the New York Energy Plan must include a critique of the Drake Landing experiment and the implications for New York thermal networks. This is another feasibility analysis that I think is necessary.

Howarth went on to double down on his position that no new technologies are needed:

We don’t need new technologies to meet the goals of our climate law.  Mark Jacobson from Stanford, who I think is the most brilliant engineer I know.  He and I and others wrote a plan back in 2013, more than ten years ago, laying out specifically how to make the state of New York fossil fuel free on a realistic time frame.  We made the case then, more than ten years ago, that we did not need new technologies, and it was cost-effective then.  It is even more so now. The whole idea of waiting for the next new technology is an excuse for inaction.  We don’t need to wait.

I have assembled a page that describes the analyses that contradict the Jacobson and Howarth work and includes a critique of their results.  To adequately characterize the New York electric system, it is necessary to simulate the details of the New York electric transmission system.  Not surprisingly, of the 11 New York Control Areas the New York City area requires the most energy.  That fact coupled with geographical constraints because New York City is basically a load pocket means that transmission details are important.  To characterize wind and solar it is necessary to evaluate meteorological conditions to generate estimates of wind and solar resource production.  When that is coupled with projections of future load, the sophisticated analyses all conclude that the new dispatchable emissions-free resource is needed because simply adding much more short-term storage will not work.  In my opinion, academic studies like Jacobson and Howarth short-change transmission constraints and/or weather variability leading to false solutions and conclusions.

Advocates for the Scoping Plan energy approach demand action now because the law mandates renewables.  Invariably they overlook New York Public Service Law  § 66-p (4). “Establishment of a renewable energy program” that includes safety valve conditions for affordability and reliability that are directly related to the zero emissions resource.   § 66-p (4) states: “The commission may temporarily suspend or modify the obligations under such program provided that the commission, after conducting a hearing as provided in section twenty of this chapter, makes a finding that the program impedes the provision of safe and adequate electric service; the program is likely to impair existing obligations and agreements; and/or that there is a significant increase in arrears or service disconnections that the commission determines is related to the program”. 

Conclusion

The Climate Action Council should have established criteria for the three § 66-p (4) requirements so that there is a clear test to suspend or modify obligations.  New York State law has restrictions that protect citizens from irrational adherence to a dangerous energy future and I believe that a feasibility analysis for the new DEFR technology should be part of the evaluation for this mandate.

In my opinion, the most promising DEFR backup technology is nuclear generation because it is the only candidate resource that is technologically ready, can be expanded as needed and does not suffer from limitations of the Second Law of Thermodynamics. If the only viable DEFR solution is nuclear, then renewables cannot be implemented without it.  But nuclear can replace renewables, eliminating the need for a massive DEFR backup resource.  Therefore, it would be prudent to pause renewable development until DEFR feasibility is proven because nuclear generation may be the only viable path to zero emissions.

Jonah Messinger summarizes my worry that New York has placed undeserved reliance on the work of Robert Howarth:

That an activist scholar with a history of contested and critiqued claims could influence the Biden administration with such an obviously erroneous study is more than concerning. It demonstrates how faulty science in the name of climate can derail important policy debates, and make the global energy transition far harder.

I am sure that none of the advocates who venerate his work will ever be convinced that his work is fatally flawed.  However, it is time that the energy experts in the state step up and confront public officials with the reality that the Climate Act schedule and mandates are only possible with a new technology.  Evaluating the potential technologies and determining if they can be feasibly implemented affordably and without risking reliability standards is an obvious approach.

DEFR Concerns Update

I am convinced that implementation of the New York Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) net-zero mandates will do more harm than good if the electric system transition relies on wind, solar, and energy storage.  My primary reliability concern is the challenge of providing electric energy during periods of extended low wind and solar resource availability.  Experts, including those that are responsible for electric system reliability, agree that a new category of generating resources called Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resources (DEFR) is necessary during those periods.  This article summarizes a very readable description of the DEFR problem by Tim Knauss who describes the work done by Cornell’s Anderson Lab headed by Dr. Lindsay Anderson.

I have followed the Climate Act since it was first proposed, submitted comments on the Climate Act implementation plan, and have written over 470 articles about New York’s net-zero transition.  The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect the position of any of my previous employers or any other organization I have been associated with, these comments are mine alone.

Takeaway Message – If you don’t have time to read the whole thing

This post summarizes a readable description of DEFR in an article by Tim Knauss.  He described the work of Dr. Lindsay Anderson regarding the necessary DEFR component of the proposed transition of the electric system to zero emissions.  The article explains how Anderson’s team calculates the gap between future wind, solar, and energy storage generating resources needed and projected electric load during periods of low renewable resource availability.  I believe that the work of the Anderson Lab provides support to my contention that renewable development should be paused.  A renewable-based electric system needs DEFR, the most likely DEFR solution is nuclear, but if you have zero emissions nuclear then you don’t need renewables.  That makes renewables a dead-end approach.

Overview

The Climate Act established a New York “Net Zero” target (85% reduction in GHG emissions and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050.  It includes an interim 2030 reduction target of a 40% GHG reduction by 2030. Two targets address the electric sector: 70% of the electricity must come from renewable energy by 2030 and all electricity must be generated by “zero-emissions” resources by 2040. The Climate Action Council (CAC) was responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlined how to “achieve the State’s bold clean energy and climate agenda.” The Integration Analysis prepared by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and its consultants quantified the impact of the electrification strategies.  That material was used to develop the Draft Scoping Plan outline of strategies.  After a year-long review, the Scoping Plan was finalized at the end of 2022.  Since then, the State has been trying to implement the Scoping Plan recommendations through regulations, proceedings, and legislation.  New York Department of Public Service (DPS) Proceeding 15-E-0302 addresses DEFR but there is no schedule for resolving the future plans for DEFR in New York.

Because of its importance to the feasibility of the Climate Act, the subject of DEFR rates its own Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York page.  I described the page contents last July in an article that summarized six analyses describing the need for DEFR: the Integration Analysis, New York Department of Public Service (DPS) Proceeding 15-E-0302 Technical Conference, NYISO Resource Outlook, Richard Ellenbogen, Cornell Biology and Environmental Engineering Lindsay Lab, and Nuclear New York.  I have updated the page with references to the Tim Knauss article on Cornell Professor Anderson’s work.

Syracuse Post Standard “Mind-Boggling Gap”

On November 19 the article There’s a mind-boggling gap in NY’s plan for a clean electric grid. ‘We are so far behind’ by Tim Knauss was published on the Syracuse dot com website. It is not clear to me whether the official link is accessible by non-subscribers so I have posted a version here and reproduce some of it with some annotations below.

Knauss poses the critical question: “What technology will grid operators turn to when solar and wind fall short?”.  He notes:

Maybe it will be advanced nuclear reactors. Or hydrogen-burning power plants. Nobody knows for sure. Operators will need some emission-free power source they can turn on and off at will.

At Cornell University, Professor Lindsay Anderson and fellow researchers have been studying this problem. Given the specific layout of New York’s electric grid, they asked, how much of this new power source would be needed in addition to all the solar and wind?

A staggering amount, it turns out.

Just 15 years from now, the electric grid will need about 40 gigawatts of new generating capacity that can be activated regardless of wind speeds, cloud cover or other weather conditions, according to Anderson’s research.

How much is that? It’s roughly equal to the total capacity of all of New York’s current power plants – nuclear, natural gas, hydro, wind, all of it.

You read that right. To back up the massive quantities of solar and wind power that will provide most of our future electricity, the state power grid will need some new, mystery resource equal in size to the entire generating fleet of today.

The need for new, mystery DEFR, the potential quantity required, and the technological challenges for the resource are issues well known by those who understand the electric system.  However, there is a loud and passionate segment of society who disagree that anything new is needed and reject the scale of the projected resource need.  Anderson and Knauss understand that this is a touchy subject.  Knauss writes:

Anderson knows that’s not easy to hear.

“That’s the thing, right?’’ she said. “Where people are going to start to worry is (to) say, ‘Okay, wait, so you’re telling us that we’re going to spend all this money building out all this wind and solar and batteries — AND we have to put in 40 gigawatts of this?”

But there will have to be a backup.

Knauss describes the analysis work done to generate the “mind-boggling” projections.

Anderson chairs Cornell’s department of biological and environmental engineering. She has a PhD in applied math and a master’s degree in engineering.  For the past decade, she has worked with a shifting assortment of doctoral candidates and other graduate students in her eponymous Anderson Lab, housed in a large room full of cubicles and computers. They examine issues related to the growing importance of renewable energy.

The Anderson Lab is looking at the physics of how all that will work. To do so, they built an elaborately detailed computer model – a “digital twin’’ — of New York’s electric grid.

That level of detail sets their work apart. Many of the studies that look at phasing in renewable energy pretend that the electric grid is a single pool of electrons that flow from point to point without constraint. It‘s known as the “copper plate’’ assumption.

In reality, the New York electric grid is a complex, lopsided network that has been stitched together piece by piece over a century. There are limits on how much electric current can move from one area to another.

The six analyses that are described on my DEFR page all handle the electric system in similar fashions and all unequivocally conclude DEFR is needed.  The reference to studies that use the “copper plate” assumption refers to the analysis that was used by the politicians who authored the Climate Act.  It is the basis of the Climate Act presumption that implementation was simply a matter of political will because no new technology would be required.  New York’s electric grid experts disagree.  This contradiction needs to be resolved.

The Knauss article goes on to describe DEFR:

carbon-free generating plant that can be turned on and off as needed. It’s pronounced DEE-fur.

Today, dispatchable power is provided mostly by natural gas power plants. Energy planners hope to replace them with something that does not produce greenhouse gases. Nobody knows what that will be.

“They’ve come up with a name for something that they don’t know what it is, but their modeling shows that they need something. It kind of seems like dark matter in the universe,’’ said environmentalist Tim Judson, executive director of the Nuclear Information and Referral Service.

When the state’s Climate Action Council issued their December 2022 report on how the state will eliminate greenhouse gases from the grid by 2040, they estimated a need for 18 to 23 gigawatts of DEFRs. Anderson’s study concluded that the estimate should be roughly doubled, to 37 to 40 GW.  In its most recent forecast, the NYSIO estimated a need for at least 20 GW of DEFRs, and as much as 40 GW, by the year 2040.

Knauss explains that Anderson is concerned about the need for DEFR and the quantity required as well as the ramifications of this new resource:

The need stems from two main vulnerabilities, Anderson said.

First, there will be lulls when the wind dies down for days on end and the skies cloud over, resulting in power shortages that exceed the current ability of batteries to compensate. Second, there will be periods when the state has plenty of renewable energy but not enough transmission capacity to get it where it’s needed.

There would even be times when Upstate produced too much renewable energy, which must be disconnected to keep from overloading the grid, even as blackouts rolled across Downstate due to bottled up transmission lines.

Most of those problems are likely to occur in the coldest part of winter and the hottest part of summer, when demand for electricity will surge to peak levels. And the region most vulnerable to blackouts would be Downstate, where communities with massive electricity needs sit at the end of transmission lines from Upstate that are often overloaded.

These issues raise a concern of mine.  I maintain that there are unacknowledged challenges associated with weather variability risks associated with planning for the DEFR resources needed.  The first challenge is calculating the resources needed which requires analysis of meteorological data to estimate resource availability and expected loads.  I believe no one has done a comprehensive enough analysis because they haven’t used the longest period of data available, and they have not included adjacent regional transmission operator areas.  The second challenge is more concerning to me.  The evaluation of the meteorological data develops a probabilistic estimate of the resources needed that are analogous to the one in a hundred-year flooding parameter.  The problem is that we often see a flood exceeding the one in hundred probabilities.  It is inevitable that the weather conditions that caused the worst-case resource drought planning scenario will also be exceeded.  When that happens there will not be enough electric energy available, blackouts are likely, and the consequences of blackouts on a society that decarbonized by using electricity will be catastrophic. 

There is another issue relative to the aspirational Climate Act mandate to go to “zero emissions” by 2040.  We need DEFR but the technology is not available.  Knauss describes potential DEFR technologies:

Some experts propose converting power plants to burn hydrogen rather than natural gas. Or hydrogen could be used in fuel cells, which rely on chemical reactions rather than combustion to make electricity.

Others promote the idea of sequestering the carbon emissions from gas plants underground. Or burning “renewable” methane recovered from landfills and other sources.

Recently, New York officials have expressed interest in small advanced nuclear plants, which are under development by various companies. State energy planners are developing a “roadmap’’ that should be released early next year detailing how new nuclear technology might be encouraged.

None of the possible technologies is ready for commercial application. Which will emerge?

“That’s the million-dollar question,’’ said Lanahan Kevin Lanahan, a spokesman for NYISO, the grid operator.

The article goes on to note a difference of opinion regarding DEFR deployment.  On one side is the electric industry who are obligated to provide reliable electricity.

New York is long overdue to identify DEFR technologies and to support their development, said Gavin Donohue, executive director of the Independent Power Producers of New York, a trade group representing power plant owners.  IPPNY formally asked the Public Service Commission three years ago to decide what it will accept as “zero-emission’’ generating plants. The PSC is still mulling that over in a regulatory proceeding.  “The timely development of fully dispatchable zero emitting resources is crucial to maintain reliability as the economy electrifies and reliance on intermittent renewable and duration limited resources increases,’’ the group wrote.

On the other side are the special interests who have no accountability.

But some environmentalists argue against a rush to develop DEFRs, saying it could distract from building wind and solar resources and could lead state officials to hastily subsidize unproven technology such as hydrogen combustion.

Following a technical presentation to the state Public Service Commission last year by Anderson and a NYISO planning director, representatives from Sierra Club and Earthjustice submitted rebuttal comments claiming that NYISO’s forecast of the need for DEFRs was “alarmist.” (The forecast presented by NYISO that day was about 25% lower than the Anderson Lab’s estimate.)

The critics said the state should focus on proven techniques such as importing power from out of state, improving transmission, and encouraging demand response programs under which customers cut their power consumption during peak periods.  “Rushing to deploy expensive and untested DEFRs risks committing New York to flawed technologies, as it is unclear at the present time which technologies will emerge as commercially scalable and cost effective,’’ they wrote.

I responded to some of the referenced rebuttal comments because I think their analyses are naïve.  In the first place, their analytical methodologies are not as sophisticated as the Anderson Lab.  Secondly, they don’t acknowledge the correlation of wind energy across New York so their estimates of the magnitude of the problem are flawed.  Knauss mentions the critics “solutions”.

It’s a complicated issue, in part because there are strategies other than adding power plants to help reduce demand for electricity during peak periods.  Improvements in meter technology, for example, will enable residential customers to respond during power shortages by reducing their demand, as some commercial and industrial customers do already. Likewise, grid operators could one day draw power from electric vehicle batteries during peak periods.

This line of reasoning is naïve because it ignores the fact that DEFR is needed when the electric system energy requirements are highest.  The conditions that cause light winds and low wind power output also cause extreme temperatures which lead to peak electrical loads.  Those are the conditions when residential customers are not going to want to reduce power consumption.  They will want to keep their homes warm! 

The article goes on to discuss practical alternatives to the “mind-boggling” gap and the aspirational Climate Act schedule.  Dr.  Anderson suggested looking at slightly less stringent emission limits at least as a bridge until a DEFR solution is found.

Knauss also points out that the Anderson Lab work makes the optimistic assumption that all the wind and solar projected by the Hochul Administration actually gets built on schedule.

In reality, siting battles and other issues have stalled many large wind and solar projects for years. And as inflation drives up the capital costs of renewable energy, Gov. Kathy Hochul is under mounting pressure from business and consumer groups to keep the cost of the energy transition under control.

Because of those barriers, there is a vast gap between New York’s renewable energy capacity today and what would be needed to retire all the fossil fuel plants. Developers would have to build about 10 times the wind and solar power that exists now.

“It’s a huge problem, and we are so far behind,’’ Anderson said.

Conclusion

I think that the Knauss article does a great job explaining the intricacies of the DEFR issue and the work of the Anderson Lab.  I believe they appropriately describe the challenges of DEFR.  However, the article does not address the policy implications of DEFR.

The Hochul Administration has finally started its update of the NY Energy Plan.  The draft scope of the plan considers an electric system that relies on wind and solar generation consistent with the Climate Act Scoping Plan.  No jurisdiction anywhere has successfully developed such a system.  The State agencies responsible for a reliable electric system agree with Professor Anderson that a wind, solar, and energy storage system requires DEFR.  I believe that it is prudent to fund a demonstration project to prove that such an electric system will work.  At the very least, the energy plan must provide a comprehensive renewable feasibility analysis to determine whether such a system will maintain affordability and reliability standards.

The most likely DEFR backup technology is nuclear generation because it is the only candidate resource that is technologically ready.  Nuclear power has a proven record for resilient electric production, development would not require changes to support the transmission system and buildout the system, it is not limited by weather extremes, it has lower environmental impacts, and when life cycle and backup costs are considered is likely cheaper.   Its use as backbone energy would eliminate the need for wind, solar, energy storage, and new DEFR deployment to meet Climate Act zero-emissions mandates. 

Sierra Club and Earthjustice argue that DEFR is a distraction to their preference for wind and solar development.  I believe that the work of the Anderson Lab provides support to my contention that renewable development should be paused because that development cannot work until DEFR is proven feasible.  If the DEFR solution is nuclear then renewables are a dead-end approach.