New York Focus recently published a fact check titled Can Blakeman Cut Utility Bills in Half on Day 1? It concluded that the Republican candidate for governor has offered “next to no detail” about how he would keep that promise. I agree that no governor can cut electric bills in half on the first day in office. However, the article treats the question as if the only levers are the clean-energy surcharges on the bill. This post describes what a governor serious about affordability could actually do, and what Governor Hochul has already done that has driven costs up.
As a retired air‑pollution meteorologist who has spent a career worrying about both the air people breathe and whether the lights stay on, I am convinced that implementation of the Climate Act net-zero mandates will do more harm than good if the future electric system relies only on wind, solar, and energy storage. I have followed the Climate Act since it was first proposed, submitted comments on the Climate Act implementation plan, and have written over 650 articles about New York’s net-zero transition.
The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect the position of any of my previous employers or any other organization I have been associated with, these comments are mine alone. I acknowledge the use of Perplexity AI to generate summaries and references included in this document.
Overview
Bruce Blakeman has said, “On day one when I become governor, I will cut your electric bills in half.” His campaign told New York Focus it would credit ratepayers with $2.4 billion from what it called Hochul’s “Energy Tax slush fund,” permanently eliminate the System Benefit Charge, and scrap “radical carbon mandates.” That is a slogan, not a plan. But the choice is not between a slogan and the status quo. A governor can act through appointments, agency direction, and the regional programs the state participates in. Those actions will not halve bills overnight, but they would stop the policy-driven cost increases Hochul has imposed or allowed and address the reliability problems NYISO keeps warning about.
What the Fact Check Missed
The article makes fair points. The System Benefit Charge and related clean-energy charges total about $1.3 billion a year, 5 to 9.5 percent of an average household bill, so eliminating them alone would not halve bills. Reversing the fracking ban requires the Legislature. And Charles Hua of PowerLines correctly notes that the governor appoints all seven Public Service Commission (PSC) commissioners.
What it misses is the full cost of state climate policy. It says the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) costs New Yorkers “more than $500 million a year.” That counts only auction proceeds. I estimate direct allowance costs in New York at $0.7 to $1.1 billion a year at current prices, and total ratepayer costs including the wholesale price effect at $1.6 to $2.2 billion. Whenever a fossil unit sets the clearing price, the allowance cost is paid to every generator, and that money never becomes auction revenue that can be rebated.
The article also repeats NYSERDA’s claim of $6 in customer savings for every $1 spent. I evaluated that claim and found it uses a projected lifetime savings claim for participants, not verified savings for all ratepayers. My review of RGGI investment reports found that RGGI-funded programs explain only about 8.7 percent of observed power-sector reductions, and that cost-effectiveness deteriorated from about $949 per ton in 2022 to about $3,200 per ton in 2024.
Finally, the NYISO market monitor agrees that retail bills are rising mainly because of transmission and distribution charges. The article never asks how much of that spending exists because of Climate Act mandates. The same presentation identifies RGGI compliance costs, along with gas prices, as the primary reasons wholesale charges have risen.
What Hochul Did
The Climate Act
The Climate Act was signed by Governor Cuomo in 2019, but Governor Hochul has owned its implementation since August 2021. Her administration finalized the Scoping Plan, approved renewable and transmission procurements charged to ratepayers, and defended unattainable targets but has never provided a feasibility analysis that shows the total system costs of the net-zero transition, The 2026 Draft Clean Energy Standard Biennial Review projects only 40 percent of 2030 load will be met by renewables against a 70 percent mandate.
This year’s budget replaced the 40 percent by 2030 reduction target with 60 percent by 2040, changed the emissions accounting, and extended the DEC regulatory deadline to December 31, 2028. Those changes improve the numbers on paper but leave the 70 percent renewable by 2030 and zero-emissions electricity by 2040 mandates in Public Service Law §66‑p that drive electric-sector costs.
RGGI
New York remains in RGGI, and the Hochul administration supported the tighter cap that is driving prices up. The first auction after she took office, in September 2021, cleared at $9.30. Auction 73 in September 2026 cleared at $37.65, and all Cost Containment Reserve allowances were sold, so none will be available at Auction 74. The revised cap calls for cuts of more than 10 percent a year from 2027 through 2033, which could exhaust the allowance bank as early as 2032. DEC and NYSERDA adopted the implementing amendments in August without adequately addressing consumer costs or emissions leakage.
Cap and Invest
Hochul proposed cap and invest in 2023, then repeatedly delayed the regulations. In February, NYSERDA’s own memo estimated that compliance with the original law would push allowance prices to [$179.80 per ton in 2031, raise upstate gas and oil household costs by more than $4,100 a year, and add $2.23 per gallon to gasoline](). She used that memo to justify postponing the program, but she did not kill it. At $120 per ton, I estimate it would add 6 to 7 cents per therm to gas and 1 to 2 cents per kWh upstate and 4 to 5 cents per kWh downstate to electricity.
The Safety Valve She Never Used
PSL §66‑p(4) allows the PSC to “temporarily suspend or modify the obligations” of the renewable program after a hearing and a finding that it impedes safe and adequate service, impairs existing obligations, or has significantly increased arrears or disconnections. Hochul’s PSC has never defined criteria for those findings or held that hearing.
Credit Where It Is Due
Her administration approved the Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) pipeline’s water quality certification in November 2025, and a federal appeals court upheld it in August. Her campaign also cites a billion-dollar rebate package, the Excelsior Power thermostat program, and making data centers pay for their power. But rebates return a fraction of what policy costs ratepayers, and her DEC is opposing the Constitution Pipeline at FERC.
What Blakeman Could Do
Get out of RGGI or cap the allowance price
Ken Girardin of the Manhattan Institute told New York Focus that New York could leave RGGI, as Pennsylvania and Virginia did. New York’s participation is implemented through DEC and NYSERDA regulations, giving a governor an administrative path, although Virginia’s experience shows an exit will be litigated. If leaving is not feasible, New York should use the RGGI program review to insist on a hard ceiling of $10 or less, roughly where prices were when Hochul took office. Scaling my direct-cost estimate suggests savings on the order of $0.5 to $0.8 billion a year before wholesale effects. New York cannot impose a cap unilaterally, but as one of the largest participants its threat to leave carries weight.
Direct the PSC to address the §66‑p(4) safety valve
A new governor can direct the PSC to open a §66‑p(4) proceeding, define objective affordability and reliability criteria, and decide on the record whether program obligations should be suspended or modified. No new legislation is needed.
Require a grid plan consistent with NYISO reliability planning
The PSC should develop an electric system plan that starts from NYISO’s reliability findings, not renewable targets, and then decide the most competitive way to get needed units built. The market monitor describes a “planning-market gap” in which the capacity market does not pay enough to keep or build what planners say is needed, and states there is a “critical need for policy to allow fossil fuel generation on the horizon.”
Get NESE, Constitution, and other pipelines in services by 2028
Williams targets fourth-quarter 2027 service for NESE, but the Third Circuit vacated New Jersey’s water quality certification. A New York governor can publicly support prompt reissuance. For Constitution, the governor can withdraw DEC’s opposition at FERC and review a complete application on the merits; Williams targets fourth-quarter 2028 service. New York should also support neighboring states pursuing similar projects.
Pipelines matter for electricity too. During Winter Storm Fern, cold weather tightened regional gas markets, limited generator flexibility, and increased reliance on oil-fired generation. The market monitor attributed most of the 66 to 79 percent increase in 2025 energy prices to higher gas prices, especially in winter.
Strategically locate new and repowered units
New generation should go where NYISO says it is needed to minimize new transmission and congestion. I suggest two facilities on Long Island, one or two in New York City, one in the Hudson Valley, and two upstate:
- New York City: Without new or repowered supply, the projected deficiency grows to more than 2,000 MW by 2036, even with planned projects.
- Long Island: Margins are deficient beginning in summer 2027, and during Fern Long Island capacity could not be fully delivered downstate.
- Hudson Valley: The draft 2026 Reliability Needs Assessment shows a Lower Hudson Valley deficiency of approximately 1,950 MW.
- Upstate: The same assessment shows a statewide deficiency of at least 1,850 MW. Existing upstate sites with gas and transmission access can address it without new bulk transmission.
Repowering also improves air quality. During the June 2025 heat wave, old New York City gas turbines produced about 2.5 percent of in-city energy but 28 percent of NOx emissions.
Immediate Action is Necessary
No matter who is Governor the existing market outcomes show how fragile the system is:
- High prices: Energy prices rose 66 to 79 percent in 2025, and capacity charges outside New York City rose 38 percent.
- Poor generation performance: State policy caused 3.7 GW of fuel-secure retirements since 2019, and the remaining 40-plus-year-old fossil fleet is on outage an average of 13 weeks a year.
- Fuel delivery constraints: In severe cold, gas is prioritized for heating, constraining gas-fired generators.
- Emergency resources: NYISO says that in the past two winters emergency procedures, including demand response, were used far more often than in previous years, and up to 1,200 MW of demand response was activated in the July 2025 heat waves.
- Thin margins: The summer 2026 operating margin was only 417 MW, with up to 3,166 MW more expected under Emergency Operating Procedures.
High energy prices hurt households and discourage the manufacturers and data centers the state wants to attract. A system with 417 MW of operating margin cannot absorb large new loads without new supply. Consumer affordability and future economic development are at risk.
Conclusion
Blakeman’s promise to cut bills in half on day one is a slogan, not a plan, and he should explain “the how, not just the what,” as Girardin put it. But Blakeman can enact a credible plan that puts affordability and reliability ahead of political targets: leave RGGI or cap allowance prices, use the §66‑p(4) safety valve, plan the grid from NYISO’s reliability findings, get the pipelines built, and site new and repowered generation where it is needed. Most of it can start immediately through appointments and agency direction.
Governor Hochul’s record is the baseline. Her appointees to the Climate Action Council have addressed affordability with slogans not actionable plans. As an aside, I believe there is a world of difference between Blakeman’s campaign slogans and Hochul’s program implementation slogans that directly impacted New Yorkers. She implemented the Climate Act until its costs became politically impossible to ignore, kept New York in RGGI as allowance prices quadrupled, and postponed but did not kill cap and invest. Her 2026 rollback admitted the original plan was unaffordable but left the electric-sector mandates that drive costs in place.
Because of its importance, I repeat – No matter who is Governor, the winnder must address the issues soon, because the current system is fragile and New Yorkers cannot afford more of the same.
